Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Trimble Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -0.6% to -0.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 71, DPO 46, DIO 70). At a 9.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $46.22 per share, suggesting TRMB is overvalued by 29.5% at the current price of $65.58.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 509 | 551 | 596 | 660 | 656 | 673 |
| (−) Net Interest | 89 | 97 | 105 | 116 | 115 | 118 |
| (+) D&A | 84 | 91 | 100 | 111 | 125 | 128 |
| EBITDA | 681 | 739 | 801 | 886 | 897 | 919 |
| (−) Tax | 91 | 99 | 107 | 118 | 118 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 82 | 89 | 96 | 106 | 106 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -90 | 66 | 69 | 97 | -5 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 598 | 485 | 528 | 564 | 678 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 16.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 15,368 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.14% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 572 | 425 | 424 | 415 | 457 | 9,924 |
| Enterprise Value | 12,219 | |||||
| Projection Period | 2,295 | 18.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 9,924 | 81.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,139 | |||||
| Equity Value | 11,080 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 240M | |||||
| Fair Price | $46 | -29.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 12.7x | 14.7x | 16.7x | 18.7x | 20.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $40 | $45 | $51 | $56 | $62 |
| 8.1% | $38 | $43 | $48 | $54 | $59 |
| 9.1% | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 |
| 10.1% | $35 | $39 | $44 | $49 | $54 |
| 11.1% | $33 | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 |
Current price: $65.58. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.