The Oncology Institute, Inc.

TOI

HealthcareMedical - Care FacilitiesNASDAQ

$4.08

Market Cap: $407.93M

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 21, 2026 22:14

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.08 – $2.99	$0.74	-78.0%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.03 – $5.69	$1.81	-46.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.23 – $1.78	$0.50	-85.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.81

Market Price

$4.08

Upside / Downside

-55.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -7.2% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) has an intrinsic value of $1.81 per share (range: $0.03 – $5.69).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	648	28.9%	-3.1%	-20	-20	11	(12)	32	-53	-51
2027	815	25.8%	1.0%	8	7	13	(19)	17	-15	-13
2028	1,022	25.4%	5.1%	52	41	17	(28)	21	9	8
2029	1,282	25.4%	9.2%	118	94	21	(41)	26	47	35
2030	1,609	25.4%	13.3%	215	170	26	(59)	33	104	71
2031	1,958	21.7%	13.3%	261	206	32	(81)	35	122	76
2032	2,309	18.0%	13.3%	308	243	38	(106)	35	140	80
2033	2,638	14.2%	13.3%	352	278	43	(134)	33	154	81
2034	2,914	10.5%	13.3%	389	307	48	(161)	28	166	80
2035	3,111	6.7%	13.3%	415	328	51	(187)	20	172	76

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)441

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,953

PV of Terminal Value1,301

Enterprise Value1,742

(–) Net Debt70

Equity Value1,672

(÷) Shares Outstanding924

Fair Value per Share$1.81

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.0%	$0	$2	$3	$4	$6
8.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
10.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3
11.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $4.08. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.74

Market Price

$4.08

Upside / Downside

-81.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	648	28.9%	-3.1%	-20	-20	11	(15)	32	-56	-54
2027	815	25.8%	1.0%	8	7	13	(26)	17	-23	-20
2028	1,022	25.4%	5.1%	52	41	17	(42)	21	-5	-4
2029	1,282	25.4%	9.2%	118	94	21	(65)	26	23	17
2030	1,609	25.4%	13.3%	215	170	26	(97)	33	67	45

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-15

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,140

PV of Terminal Value773

Enterprise Value758

(–) Net Debt70

Equity Value688

(÷) Shares Outstanding924

Fair Value per Share$0.74

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$3
8.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$2	$2
9.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
10.0%	$-0	$0	$1	$1	$2
11.0%	$-0	$0	$0	$1	$1

Current price: $4.08. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.50

Market Price

$4.08

Upside / Downside

-87.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) has a fair value of $0.50 based on 10 comparable companies in the Medical - Care Facilities industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	3,769	7.6x	10.6x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	788	8.6x	12.0x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	703	1.1x	1.1x
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.SNDA	622	3.4x	5.0x
Autolus Therapeutics plcAUTL	413	8.7x	5.0x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	411	1.9x	1.7x
Agilon Health, Inc.AGL	407	0.0x	0.0x
Auna S.A.AUNA	390	0.9x	0.8x
Cross Country Healthcare, Inc.CCRN	324	0.2x	0.2x
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	321	1.4x	1.3x
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	118	0.6x	0.6x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.2x
(*) Revenue		503	361
= Enterprise Value		632	428
(-) Net Debt		70	70
Equity Value		562	358
(/) Outstanding shares		924	924
Fair Price		$1	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.50

-87.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.08 – $2.99

$0.74

-78.0%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.03 – $5.69

$1.81

-46.6%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.23 – $1.78

$0.50

-85.3%

DCF Analysis

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.81

Market Price

$4.08

Upside / Downside

-55.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.2%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.3%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	648	28.9%	-3.1%	-20	-20	11	(12)	32	-53	-51
2027	815	25.8%	1.0%	8	7	13	(19)	17	-15	-13
2028	1,022	25.4%	5.1%	52	41	17	(28)	21	9	8
2029	1,282	25.4%	9.2%	118	94	21	(41)	26	47	35
2030	1,609	25.4%	13.3%	215	170	26	(59)	33	104	71
2031	1,958	21.7%	13.3%	261	206	32	(81)	35	122	76
2032	2,309	18.0%	13.3%	308	243	38	(106)	35	140	80
2033	2,638	14.2%	13.3%	352	278	43	(134)	33	154	81
2034	2,914	10.5%	13.3%	389	307	48	(161)	28	166	80
2035	3,111	6.7%	13.3%	415	328	51	(187)	20	172	76

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)441

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,953

PV of Terminal Value1,301

Enterprise Value1,742

(–) Net Debt70

Equity Value1,672

(÷) Shares Outstanding924

Fair Value per Share$1.81

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.0%	$0	$2	$3	$4	$6
8.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.0%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
10.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3
11.0%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$2

Current price: $4.08. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 10.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.50

Market Price

$4.08

Upside / Downside

-87.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Care Facilities

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	3,769	7.6x	10.6x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	788	8.6x	12.0x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	703	1.1x	1.1x
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.SNDA	622	3.4x	5.0x
Autolus Therapeutics plcAUTL	413	8.7x	5.0x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	411	1.9x	1.7x
Agilon Health, Inc.AGL	407	0.0x	0.0x
Auna S.A.AUNA	390	0.9x	0.8x
Cross Country Healthcare, Inc.CCRN	324	0.2x	0.2x
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	321	1.4x	1.3x
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	118	0.6x	0.6x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.2x
(*) Revenue		503	361
= Enterprise Value		632	428
(-) Net Debt		70	70
Equity Value		562	358
(/) Outstanding shares		924	924
Fair Price		$1	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.50

-87.8%