Evolus, Inc.

EOLS

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericNASDAQ

$6.36

Market Cap: $418.84M

Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 21:36

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.36 – $15.42	$4.10	-35.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.08 – $30.98	$10.19	+60.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.49 – $39.02	$9.13	+43.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$10.19

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

+60.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -12.7% to a target of 13.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.5%, Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) has an intrinsic value of $10.19 per share (range: $0.08 – $30.98).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	330	11.2%	-7.5%	-25	-25	12	(5)	1	-19	-18
2027	388	17.3%	-2.3%	-9	-9	14	(8)	10	-14	-12
2028	459	18.4%	2.9%	13	10	16	(12)	13	2	1
2029	528	15.1%	8.0%	42	33	18	(16)	12	23	17
2030	592	12.1%	13.2%	78	62	21	(21)	11	50	33
2031	750	26.7%	13.2%	99	78	26	(30)	28	46	28
2032	914	21.9%	13.2%	121	95	32	(41)	29	56	31
2033	1,072	17.2%	13.2%	141	112	37	(54)	28	67	34
2034	1,205	12.5%	13.2%	159	126	42	(66)	24	77	36
2035	1,298	7.7%	13.2%	171	135	45	(78)	17	86	36

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)187

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,358

PV of Terminal Value572

Enterprise Value758

(–) Net Debt101

Equity Value657

(÷) Shares Outstanding64

Fair Value per Share$10.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.5%	$3	$10	$17	$24	$31
8.5%	$2	$7	$13	$19	$24
9.5%	$1	$6	$10	$15	$19
10.5%	$1	$4	$8	$12	$16
11.5%	$0	$3	$7	$10	$13

Current price: $6.36. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.10

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

-35.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	330	11.2%	-7.5%	-25	-25	12	(7)	1	-21	-20
2027	388	17.3%	-2.3%	-9	-9	14	(12)	10	-17	-15
2028	459	18.4%	2.9%	13	10	16	(19)	13	-5	-4
2029	528	15.1%	8.0%	42	33	18	(27)	12	13	10
2030	592	12.1%	13.2%	78	62	21	(36)	11	35	24

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-6

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)559

PV of Terminal Value371

Enterprise Value365

(–) Net Debt101

Equity Value264

(÷) Shares Outstanding64

Fair Value per Share$4.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.5%	$-1	$3	$7	$11	$15
8.5%	$-1	$2	$5	$9	$12
9.5%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
10.5%	$-2	$1	$3	$5	$8
11.5%	$-2	$0	$2	$4	$6

Current price: $6.36. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.13

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

+43.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) has a fair value of $9.13 based on 9 comparable companies in the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	410	1.7x	1.5x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	765	8.4x	11.6x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	706	1.1x	1.1x
Solid Biosciences Inc.SLDB	551	52.4x	115.2x
Kamada Ltd.KMDA	493	2.2x	2.1x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	457	2.3x	2.0x
Autolus Therapeutics plcAUTL	418	8.8x	5.1x
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	402	0.9x	1.1x
Quantum-Si incorporatedQSI	193	71.9x	167.4x
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	124	0.6x	0.6x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		297	330
= Enterprise Value		676	704
(-) Net Debt		101	101
Equity Value		575	603
(/) Outstanding shares		64	64
Fair Price		$9	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.13

+43.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.36 – $15.42

$4.10

-35.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.08 – $30.98

$10.19

+60.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.49 – $39.02

$9.13

+43.6%

DCF Analysis

Evolus, Inc. (EOLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$10.19

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

+60.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-12.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.2%

WACC

9.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.5%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	330	11.2%	-7.5%	-25	-25	12	(5)	1	-19	-18
2027	388	17.3%	-2.3%	-9	-9	14	(8)	10	-14	-12
2028	459	18.4%	2.9%	13	10	16	(12)	13	2	1
2029	528	15.1%	8.0%	42	33	18	(16)	12	23	17
2030	592	12.1%	13.2%	78	62	21	(21)	11	50	33
2031	750	26.7%	13.2%	99	78	26	(30)	28	46	28
2032	914	21.9%	13.2%	121	95	32	(41)	29	56	31
2033	1,072	17.2%	13.2%	141	112	37	(54)	28	67	34
2034	1,205	12.5%	13.2%	159	126	42	(66)	24	77	36
2035	1,298	7.7%	13.2%	171	135	45	(78)	17	86	36

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)187

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,358

PV of Terminal Value572

Enterprise Value758

(–) Net Debt101

Equity Value657

(÷) Shares Outstanding64

Fair Value per Share$10.19

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%	19.2%
7.5%	$3	$10	$17	$24	$31
8.5%	$2	$7	$13	$19	$24
9.5%	$1	$6	$10	$15	$19
10.5%	$1	$4	$8	$12	$16
11.5%	$0	$3	$7	$10	$13

Current price: $6.36. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 17.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.13

Market Price

$6.36

Upside / Downside

+43.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Evolus, Inc.EOLS	410	1.7x	1.5x
CeriBell, Inc.CBLL	765	8.4x	11.6x
Enhabit, Inc.EHAB	706	1.1x	1.1x
Solid Biosciences Inc.SLDB	551	52.4x	115.2x
Kamada Ltd.KMDA	493	2.2x	2.1x
OrthoPediatrics Corp.KIDS	457	2.3x	2.0x
Autolus Therapeutics plcAUTL	418	8.8x	5.1x
The Oncology Institute, Inc.TOI	402	0.9x	1.1x
Quantum-Si incorporatedQSI	193	71.9x	167.4x
Treace Medical Concepts, Inc.TMCI	124	0.6x	0.6x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		297	330
= Enterprise Value		676	704
(-) Net Debt		101	101
Equity Value		575	603
(/) Outstanding shares		64	64
Fair Price		$9	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.13

+43.6%