Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.5% plus 3.9% dividend yield, Target Corporation has a fair value of $68.00 based on NTM EPS (FY2027) of $7.98. The current PEG ratio is 1.71.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG tends to undervalue slow growers — consider dividend yield and asset value instead.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 4.6% |
| Dividend Yield | +3.9% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 8.5% |
| Fair P/E | 8.5x |
| NTM EPS (FY2027) | $7.98 |
| Fair Value | $68.00 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $8.13 | — | — |
| FY2027E | $7.98 | -1.8% | 26 |
| FY2028E | $8.46 | +6.0% | 24 |
| FY2029E | $9.01 | +6.5% | 15 |
| FY2030E | $10.01 | +11.2% | 7 |
| FY2031E | $10.67 | +6.5% | 10 |
6Y Forward EPS CAGR: 4.6%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $6.9B | $14.10 | — |
| FY2022 | $2.8B | $5.98 | -57.6% |
| FY2023 | $4.1B | $8.94 | +49.5% |
| FY2024 | $4.1B | $8.86 | -0.9% |
| FY2025 | $3.7B | $8.13 | -8.2% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -12.9%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.