Tecogen Inc.

TGEN

IndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsAMEX

$5.07

Market Cap: $151.62M

Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:29

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.05 – $5.74	$0.73	-72.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.16 – $5.81	$0.86	-67.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.04 – $5.53	$1.24	-53.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.86

Market Price

$5.07

Upside / Downside

-83.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -26.3% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.4%, Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) has an intrinsic value of $0.86 per share (range: $0.16 – $5.81).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-26.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.3%

Tax Rate

0.5%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	29	7.1%	-19.0%	-6	-6	1	(1)	4	-10	-9
2027	63	118.8%	-11.7%	-7	-7	1	(2)	19	-27	-24
2028	65	2.6%	-4.4%	-3	-3	2	(2)	1	-4	-3
2029	67	2.6%	3.0%	2	2	2	(2)	1	0	0
2030	69	2.6%	10.3%	7	7	2	(3)	1	5	3
2031	70	2.7%	10.3%	7	7	2	(3)	1	5	3
2032	72	2.8%	10.3%	7	7	2	(3)	1	5	3
2033	74	2.8%	10.3%	8	8	2	(4)	1	4	2
2034	77	2.9%	10.3%	8	8	2	(4)	1	4	2
2035	79	2.9%	10.3%	8	8	2	(5)	1	4	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-21

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)74

PV of Terminal Value35

Enterprise Value14

(–) Net Debt-10

Equity Value23

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$0.86

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.4%	$-1	$0	$2	$4	$6
7.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$4
8.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
9.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$2
10.4%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $5.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 56.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.73

Market Price

$5.07

Upside / Downside

-85.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-26.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.3%

Tax Rate

0.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	29	7.1%	-19.0%	-6	-6	1	(1)	4	-10	-9
2027	63	118.8%	-11.7%	-7	-7	1	(2)	19	-27	-24
2028	65	2.6%	-4.4%	-3	-3	2	(3)	1	-5	-4
2029	67	2.6%	3.0%	2	2	2	(3)	1	-1	-1
2030	69	2.6%	10.3%	7	7	2	(4)	1	4	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-36

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)67

PV of Terminal Value47

Enterprise Value10

(–) Net Debt-10

Equity Value20

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$0.73

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.4%	$-1	$0	$2	$4	$6
7.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$4
8.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
9.4%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$2
10.4%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $5.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 56.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.24

Market Price

$5.07

Upside / Downside

-75.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) has a fair value of $1.24 based on 8 comparable companies in the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Electrical Equipment & Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tecogen Inc.TGEN	138	4.7x	4.8x
Solid Power, Inc.SLDP	537	22.9x	38.3x
Acacia Research CorporationACTG	484	1.0x	4.9x
Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.PKOH	346	0.6x	0.6x
Radiant Logistics, Inc.RLGT	344	0.4x	0.4x
Civeo CorporationCVEO	342	0.8x	0.8x
Electrovaya Inc.ELVA	315	5.2x	3.9x
L.B. Foster CompanyFSTR	313	0.7x	0.7x
NL Industries, Inc.NL	276	1.0x	1.1x
Industry Median		0.9x	0.9x
(*) Revenue		27	27
= Enterprise Value		24	24
(-) Net Debt		-10	-10
Equity Value		34	34
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.24

-75.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.05 – $5.74

$0.73

-72.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.16 – $5.81

$0.86

-67.7%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.04 – $5.53

$1.24

-53.2%

DCF Analysis

Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.86

Market Price

$5.07

Upside / Downside

-83.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-26.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.3%

Tax Rate

0.5%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	29	7.1%	-19.0%	-6	-6	1	(1)	4	-10	-9
2027	63	118.8%	-11.7%	-7	-7	1	(2)	19	-27	-24
2028	65	2.6%	-4.4%	-3	-3	2	(2)	1	-4	-3
2029	67	2.6%	3.0%	2	2	2	(2)	1	0	0
2030	69	2.6%	10.3%	7	7	2	(3)	1	5	3
2031	70	2.7%	10.3%	7	7	2	(3)	1	5	3
2032	72	2.8%	10.3%	7	7	2	(3)	1	5	3
2033	74	2.8%	10.3%	8	8	2	(4)	1	4	2
2034	77	2.9%	10.3%	8	8	2	(4)	1	4	2
2035	79	2.9%	10.3%	8	8	2	(5)	1	4	2

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-21

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)74

PV of Terminal Value35

Enterprise Value14

(–) Net Debt-10

Equity Value23

(÷) Shares Outstanding27

Fair Value per Share$0.86

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.4%	$-1	$0	$2	$4	$6
7.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$3	$4
8.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3
9.4%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$2
10.4%	$-1	$-0	$0	$1	$2

Current price: $5.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 56.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.24

Market Price

$5.07

Upside / Downside

-75.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tecogen Inc. (TGEN) has a fair value of $1.24 based on 8 comparable companies in the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Electrical Equipment & Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tecogen Inc.TGEN	138	4.7x	4.8x
Solid Power, Inc.SLDP	537	22.9x	38.3x
Acacia Research CorporationACTG	484	1.0x	4.9x
Park-Ohio Holdings Corp.PKOH	346	0.6x	0.6x
Radiant Logistics, Inc.RLGT	344	0.4x	0.4x
Civeo CorporationCVEO	342	0.8x	0.8x
Electrovaya Inc.ELVA	315	5.2x	3.9x
L.B. Foster CompanyFSTR	313	0.7x	0.7x
NL Industries, Inc.NL	276	1.0x	1.1x
Industry Median		0.9x	0.9x
(*) Revenue		27	27
= Enterprise Value		24	24
(-) Net Debt		-10	-10
Equity Value		34	34
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$1	$1

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.24

-75.5%