Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Teledyne Technologies Incorporated's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.4% to 7.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 80, DPO 52, DIO 103). At a 8.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $461.23 per share, suggesting TDY is overvalued by 24.9% at the current price of $614.52.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,200 | 1,262 | 1,324 | 1,421 | 1,525 | 1,563 |
| (−) Net Interest | 89 | 94 | 98 | 105 | 113 | 116 |
| (+) D&A | 102 | 106 | 112 | 115 | 127 | 130 |
| EBITDA | 1,391 | 1,461 | 1,535 | 1,642 | 1,764 | 1,809 |
| (−) Tax | 163 | 171 | 180 | 193 | 207 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 119 | 125 | 131 | 141 | 151 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -3 | 99 | 99 | 155 | 166 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,112 | 1,066 | 1,124 | 1,153 | 1,240 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 16.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 29,932 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.91% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,066 | 938 | 908 | 855 | 845 | 19,536 |
| Enterprise Value | 24,148 | |||||
| Projection Period | 4,612 | 19.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 19,536 | 80.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,290 | |||||
| Equity Value | 21,858 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 47M | |||||
| Fair Price | $461 | -25.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 12.6x | 14.6x | 16.6x | 18.6x | 20.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | $396 | $451 | $506 | $560 | $615 |
| 7.9% | $379 | $431 | $483 | $535 | $587 |
| 8.9% | $362 | $411 | $461 | $511 | $561 |
| 9.9% | $346 | $393 | $441 | $488 | $536 |
| 10.9% | $330 | $376 | $421 | $467 | $512 |
Current price: $614.52. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.