ThredUp Inc.

TDUP

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ

$4.92

Market Cap: $634.88M

ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 09:56

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.01 – $8.81	$1.70	-65.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.08 – $9.29	$1.85	-62.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$1.34 – $3.70	$1.70	-65.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.85

Market Price

$4.92

Upside / Downside

-62.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -6.5% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.9%, ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) has an intrinsic value of $1.85 per share (range: $0.08 – $9.29).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	355	14.2%	-3.7%	-13	-13	20	(25)	13	-31	-30
2027	392	10.4%	-0.8%	-3	-3	22	(29)	-1	-8	-7
2028	422	7.7%	2.0%	9	7	24	(31)	-1	0	0
2029	438	3.8%	4.9%	21	17	25	(33)	-1	9	7
2030	469	7.0%	7.7%	36	29	27	(36)	-1	20	14
2031	492	5.0%	7.7%	38	30	28	(39)	-1	20	13
2032	515	4.6%	7.7%	40	31	29	(41)	-1	20	12
2033	536	4.2%	7.7%	41	33	30	(44)	-1	20	11
2034	557	3.8%	7.7%	43	34	32	(46)	-1	20	10
2035	576	3.4%	7.7%	44	35	33	(49)	-1	19	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)40

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)409

PV of Terminal Value198

Enterprise Value238

(–) Net Debt14

Equity Value225

(÷) Shares Outstanding122

Fair Value per Share$1.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.9%	$-1	$1	$4	$6	$9
6.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$5	$7
7.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5
8.9%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4
9.9%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $4.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.70

Market Price

$4.92

Upside / Downside

-65.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	355	14.2%	-3.7%	-13	-13	20	(26)	13	-32	-31
2027	392	10.4%	-0.8%	-3	-3	22	(30)	-1	-9	-8
2028	422	7.7%	2.0%	9	7	24	(33)	-1	-2	-1
2029	438	3.8%	4.9%	21	17	25	(36)	-1	6	5
2030	469	7.0%	7.7%	36	29	27	(40)	-1	16	12

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-24

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)344

PV of Terminal Value245

Enterprise Value221

(–) Net Debt14

Equity Value207

(÷) Shares Outstanding122

Fair Value per Share$1.70

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.9%	$-1	$1	$3	$6	$9
6.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$4	$6
7.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5
8.9%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4
9.9%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $4.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.70

Market Price

$4.92

Upside / Downside

-65.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) has a fair value of $1.70 based on 8 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ThredUp Inc.TDUP	599	2.0x	1.7x
Leggett & Platt, IncorporatedLEG	1,372	0.6x	0.6x
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.GIII	1,340	0.4x	0.4x
Carter's, Inc.CRI	1,302	0.7x	0.7x
MillerKnoll, Inc.MLKN	1,116	0.7x	0.8x
Aeva Technologies, Inc.AEVA	854	48.9x	26.9x
Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.WOOF	782	0.6x	0.6x
EVgo, Inc.EVGO	618	1.5x	1.3x
Newegg Commerce, Inc.NEGG	535	0.4x	0.3x
Industry Median		0.7x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		311	355
= Enterprise Value		202	239
(-) Net Debt		14	14
Equity Value		189	225
(/) Outstanding shares		122	122
Fair Price		$2	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.70

-65.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.01 – $8.81

$1.70

-65.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.08 – $9.29

$1.85

-62.4%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$1.34 – $3.70

$1.70

-65.4%

DCF Analysis

ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.85

Market Price

$4.92

Upside / Downside

-62.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-6.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

8.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.7%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	355	14.2%	-3.7%	-13	-13	20	(25)	13	-31	-30
2027	392	10.4%	-0.8%	-3	-3	22	(29)	-1	-8	-7
2028	422	7.7%	2.0%	9	7	24	(31)	-1	0	0
2029	438	3.8%	4.9%	21	17	25	(33)	-1	9	7
2030	469	7.0%	7.7%	36	29	27	(36)	-1	20	14
2031	492	5.0%	7.7%	38	30	28	(39)	-1	20	13
2032	515	4.6%	7.7%	40	31	29	(41)	-1	20	12
2033	536	4.2%	7.7%	41	33	30	(44)	-1	20	11
2034	557	3.8%	7.7%	43	34	32	(46)	-1	20	10
2035	576	3.4%	7.7%	44	35	33	(49)	-1	19	9

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)40

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)409

PV of Terminal Value198

Enterprise Value238

(–) Net Debt14

Equity Value225

(÷) Shares Outstanding122

Fair Value per Share$1.85

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.9%	$-1	$1	$4	$6	$9
6.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$5	$7
7.9%	$-1	$0	$2	$3	$5
8.9%	$-1	$0	$1	$3	$4
9.9%	$-1	$-0	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $4.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$1.70

Market Price

$4.92

Upside / Downside

-65.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), ThredUp Inc. (TDUP) has a fair value of $1.70 based on 8 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
ThredUp Inc.TDUP	599	2.0x	1.7x
Leggett & Platt, IncorporatedLEG	1,372	0.6x	0.6x
G-III Apparel Group, Ltd.GIII	1,340	0.4x	0.4x
Carter's, Inc.CRI	1,302	0.7x	0.7x
MillerKnoll, Inc.MLKN	1,116	0.7x	0.8x
Aeva Technologies, Inc.AEVA	854	48.9x	26.9x
Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.WOOF	782	0.6x	0.6x
EVgo, Inc.EVGO	618	1.5x	1.3x
Newegg Commerce, Inc.NEGG	535	0.4x	0.3x
Industry Median		0.7x	0.7x
(*) Revenue		311	355
= Enterprise Value		202	239
(-) Net Debt		14	14
Equity Value		189	225
(/) Outstanding shares		122	122
Fair Price		$2	$2

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$1.70

-65.4%