Newegg Commerce, Inc.

NEGG

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNASDAQ

$25.51

Market Cap: $535.02M

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 09:04

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$10.74 – $120.78	$16.84	-34.0%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.17 – $88.30	$15.34	-39.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$63.29 – $153.49	$100.16	+292.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$15.34

Market Price

$25.51

Upside / Downside

-39.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.2% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.5%, Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) has an intrinsic value of $15.34 per share (range: $0.17 – $88.30).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.2%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.7%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	1,112	-10.0%	-1.8%	-20	-20	7	(14)	2	-29	-28
2026	1,001	-10.0%	0.6%	6	6	7	(18)	-2	-4	-3
2027	901	-10.0%	3.0%	27	27	6	(21)	-2	13	11
2028	811	-10.0%	5.3%	43	43	5	(23)	-2	27	21
2029	740	-8.7%	7.7%	57	57	5	(25)	-1	38	28
2030	690	-6.7%	7.7%	53	53	5	(27)	-1	32	21
2031	657	-4.8%	7.7%	51	51	4	(29)	-1	27	17
2032	639	-2.8%	7.7%	49	49	4	(32)	-0	22	13
2033	633	-0.9%	7.7%	49	49	4	(35)	-0	18	10
2034	640	1.1%	7.7%	49	49	4	(38)	0	15	8

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)97

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)343

PV of Terminal Value172

Enterprise Value269

(–) Net Debt-27

Equity Value296

(÷) Shares Outstanding19

Fair Value per Share$15.34

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.5%	$-6	$0	$26	$57	$88
6.5%	$-6	$0	$19	$42	$64
7.5%	$-6	$0	$15	$33	$50
8.5%	$-6	$0	$13	$27	$42
9.5%	$-5	$0	$11	$23	$35

Current price: $25.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 1.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$16.84

Market Price

$25.51

Upside / Downside

-34.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.2%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.7%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	1,112	-10.0%	-1.8%	-20	-20	7	(20)	2	-34	-33
2026	1,001	-10.0%	0.6%	6	6	7	(28)	-2	-14	-13
2027	901	-10.0%	3.0%	27	27	6	(35)	-2	-1	-1
2028	834	-7.4%	5.3%	45	45	5	(41)	-1	10	8
2029	816	-2.2%	7.7%	63	63	5	(49)	-0	20	14

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-25

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)448

PV of Terminal Value323

Enterprise Value298

(–) Net Debt-27

Equity Value325

(÷) Shares Outstanding19

Fair Value per Share$16.84

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.5%	$-7	$-3	$33	$77	$121
6.5%	$-7	$-3	$23	$54	$85
7.5%	$-7	$-3	$17	$41	$65
8.5%	$-6	$-3	$13	$33	$52
9.5%	$-6	$-3	$11	$27	$44

Current price: $25.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 1.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$100.16

Market Price

$25.51

Upside / Downside

+292.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) has a fair value of $100.16 based on 7 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Newegg Commerce, Inc.NEGG	492	0.4x	0.3x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	2,248	1.4x	1.2x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	2,105	3.7x	3.9x
Albany International Corp.AIN	1,774	1.8x	1.7x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,444	1.0x	1.1x
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.SBH	1,362	0.7x	0.7x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,324	2.4x	2.3x
ACV Auctions Inc.ACVA	1,119	1.4x	1.2x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.2x
(*) Revenue		1,236	1,679
= Enterprise Value		1,760	2,049
(-) Net Debt		-27	-27
Equity Value		1,787	2,076
(/) Outstanding shares		19	19
Fair Price		$93	$108

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$100.16

+292.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$10.74 – $120.78

$16.84

-34.0%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.17 – $88.30

$15.34

-39.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$63.29 – $153.49

$100.16

+292.6%

DCF Analysis

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$15.34

Market Price

$25.51

Upside / Downside

-39.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.2%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

7.5%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

0.7%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	1,112	-10.0%	-1.8%	-20	-20	7	(14)	2	-29	-28
2026	1,001	-10.0%	0.6%	6	6	7	(18)	-2	-4	-3
2027	901	-10.0%	3.0%	27	27	6	(21)	-2	13	11
2028	811	-10.0%	5.3%	43	43	5	(23)	-2	27	21
2029	740	-8.7%	7.7%	57	57	5	(25)	-1	38	28
2030	690	-6.7%	7.7%	53	53	5	(27)	-1	32	21
2031	657	-4.8%	7.7%	51	51	4	(29)	-1	27	17
2032	639	-2.8%	7.7%	49	49	4	(32)	-0	22	13
2033	633	-0.9%	7.7%	49	49	4	(35)	-0	18	10
2034	640	1.1%	7.7%	49	49	4	(38)	0	15	8

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)97

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)343

PV of Terminal Value172

Enterprise Value269

(–) Net Debt-27

Equity Value296

(÷) Shares Outstanding19

Fair Value per Share$15.34

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
5.5%	$-6	$0	$26	$57	$88
6.5%	$-6	$0	$19	$42	$64
7.5%	$-6	$0	$15	$33	$50
8.5%	$-6	$0	$13	$27	$42
9.5%	$-5	$0	$11	$23	$35

Current price: $25.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 1.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$100.16

Market Price

$25.51

Upside / Downside

+292.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) has a fair value of $100.16 based on 7 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Newegg Commerce, Inc.NEGG	492	0.4x	0.3x
Blue Bird CorporationBLBD	2,248	1.4x	1.2x
Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc.MCRI	2,105	3.7x	3.9x
Albany International Corp.AIN	1,774	1.8x	1.7x
Revolve Group, Inc.RVLV	1,444	1.0x	1.1x
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.SBH	1,362	0.7x	0.7x
The Wendy's CompanyWEN	1,324	2.4x	2.3x
ACV Auctions Inc.ACVA	1,119	1.4x	1.2x
Industry Median		1.4x	1.2x
(*) Revenue		1,236	1,679
= Enterprise Value		1,760	2,049
(-) Net Debt		-27	-27
Equity Value		1,787	2,076
(/) Outstanding shares		19	19
Fair Price		$93	$108

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$100.16

+292.6%