Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.1% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 2840, DPO 566, DIO 60). At a 6.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (144% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $20.04 per share, suggesting TCI is overvalued by 42.8% at the current price of $35.01.
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| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -24 | -25 | -26 | -27 | -28 | -29 |
| (−) Net Interest | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22 |
| (+) D&A | 18 | 25 | 36 | 46 | 57 | 59 |
| EBITDA | 12 | 20 | 29 | 40 | 50 | 52 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 48 | 50 | 53 | 55 | 57 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 3 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -38 | -50 | -42 | -32 | -21 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 716 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.18% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -37 | -46 | -36 | -26 | -16 | 531 |
| Enterprise Value | 370 | |||||
| Projection Period | -161 | -43.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 531 | 143.6% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 197 | |||||
| Equity Value | 173 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 9M | |||||
| Fair Price | $20 | -42.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.9x | 11.9x | 13.9x | 15.9x | 17.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | $6 | $16 | $25 | $35 | $45 |
| 5.2% | $4 | $13 | $23 | $32 | $41 |
| 6.2% | $2 | $11 | $20 | $29 | $38 |
| 7.2% | $1 | $9 | $18 | $26 | $35 |
| 8.2% | $0 | $7 | $15 | $23 | $31 |
Current price: $35.01. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. (TCI) has a fair value of $25.67 based on 5 comparable companies in the Real Estate - Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.TCI | 302 | 21.9x | — |
| The RMR Group Inc. | 527 | 16.1x | 6.1x |
| FRP Holdings, Inc. | 418 | 128.8x | 23.5x |
| Five Point Holdings, LLC | 360 | 10.5x | 16.8x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 249 | 4.8x | — |
| New England Realty Associates Limited Partnership | 200 | 33.2x | — |
| Industry Median | 16.1x | 16.8x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 14 | ||
| Equity Value | 222 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 9 | ||
| Fair Price | $26 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. (TCI) has a fair value of $42.56 based on 6 comparable companies in the Real Estate - Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.TCI | 302 | 12.3x | — |
| The RMR Group Inc. | 527 | 10.9x | 32.6x |
| Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated | 497 | 12.5x | 11.9x |
| FRP Holdings, Inc. | 418 | 28.6x | 21.6x |
| Industrial Logistics Properties Trust | 399 | 13.5x | 13.6x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 249 | 27.8x | 91.4x |
| Service Properties Trust | 235 | 14.2x | 13.8x |
| Industry Median | 13.9x | 17.7x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 41 | ||
| = Enterprise Value | 564 | ||
| (-) Net Debt | 197 | ||
| Equity Value | 368 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 9 | ||
| Fair Price | $43 | ||
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc. (TCI) has a fair value of $25.49 based on 9 comparable companies in the Real Estate - Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transcontinental Realty Investors, Inc.TCI | 302 | 10.2x | — |
| The RMR Group Inc. | 527 | 1.0x | 2.9x |
| Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated | 497 | 8.5x | 8.1x |
| FRP Holdings, Inc. | 418 | 11.8x | 8.9x |
| Industrial Logistics Properties Trust | 399 | 9.9x | 9.9x |
| Five Point Holdings, LLC | 360 | 4.1x | 2.9x |
| Maui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc. | 322 | 16.5x | 0.3x |
| Seaport Entertainment Group Inc. | 287 | 2.3x | 2.3x |
| NexPoint Real Estate Finance, Inc. | 249 | 43.1x | 141.3x |
| Service Properties Trust | 235 | 3.0x | 2.9x |
| Industry Median | 8.5x | 2.9x | |
| (*) Revenue | 49 | ||
| = Enterprise Value | 417 | ||
| (-) Net Debt | 197 | ||
| Equity Value | 220 | ||
| (/) Outstanding shares | 9 | ||
| Fair Price | $25 | ||
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 10.1%, the company has a fair value of $16.11 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $1.60. The current PEG ratio is 2.50.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 10.1% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 10.1% |
| Fair P/E | 10.1x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $1.60 |
| Fair Value | $16.11 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $9.4M | $1.09 | — |
| FY2022 | $468.3M | $54.20 | +4872.5% |
| FY2023 | $5.9M | $0.69 | -98.7% |
| FY2024 | $5.9M | $0.68 | -1.4% |
| FY2025 | $13.8M | $1.60 | +135.3% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 10.1%
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.