Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

TARS

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$59.65

Market Cap: $2.57B

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$5.31 – $68.15	$19.82	-71.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.11 – $167.45	$48.53	-30.9%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$44.73 – $94.90	$78.46	+11.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$48.53

Market Price

$59.65

Upside / Downside

-18.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -15.7% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.8%, Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) has an intrinsic value of $48.53 per share (range: $0.11 – $167.45).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	694	53.7%	-9.9%	-69	-69	11	(51)	-27	-82	-78
2027	901	29.9%	-4.1%	-37	-37	14	(65)	14	-102	-90
2028	1,061	17.7%	1.7%	18	14	17	(75)	11	-55	-44
2029	1,199	13.0%	7.5%	90	71	19	(83)	10	-2	-2
2030	1,329	10.8%	13.3%	177	140	21	(90)	9	62	43
2031	1,727	30.0%	13.3%	230	182	27	(114)	27	68	43
2032	2,245	30.0%	13.3%	299	237	35	(145)	36	92	53
2033	2,919	30.0%	13.3%	389	308	46	(184)	46	123	66
2034	3,636	24.6%	13.3%	485	383	57	(224)	49	168	82
2035	4,138	13.8%	13.3%	552	436	65	(248)	34	219	99

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)171

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,919

PV of Terminal Value1,767

Enterprise Value1,938

(–) Net Debt-90

Equity Value2,028

(÷) Shares Outstanding42

Fair Value per Share$48.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$2	$44	$85	$126	$167
7.8%	$0	$31	$63	$94	$125
8.8%	$-1	$24	$49	$73	$98
9.8%	$-2	$18	$39	$59	$79
10.8%	$-3	$15	$32	$49	$66

Current price: $59.65. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 6.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$19.82

Market Price

$59.65

Upside / Downside

-66.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	694	53.7%	-9.9%	-69	-69	11	(50)	-27	-80	-77
2027	901	29.9%	-4.1%	-37	-37	14	(62)	14	-99	-87
2028	1,061	17.7%	1.7%	18	14	17	(70)	11	-50	-40
2029	1,199	13.0%	7.5%	90	71	19	(76)	10	5	4
2030	1,329	10.8%	13.3%	177	140	21	(80)	9	72	50

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-152

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,297

PV of Terminal Value890

Enterprise Value738

(–) Net Debt-90

Equity Value828

(÷) Shares Outstanding42

Fair Value per Share$19.82

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-0	$17	$34	$51	$68
7.8%	$-1	$12	$25	$39	$52
8.8%	$-2	$9	$20	$31	$41
9.8%	$-2	$7	$16	$25	$34
10.8%	$-3	$5	$13	$21	$29

Current price: $59.65. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 6.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$78.49

Market Price

$59.65

Upside / Downside

+31.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) has a fair value of $78.49 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.TARS	2,492	5.3x	3.5x
Scholar Rock Holding CorporationSRRK	5,607	167.9x	—
Legend Biotech CorporationLEGN	3,455	2.9x	2.1x
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.TVTX	2,936	6.5x	4.6x
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.ARQT	2,934	7.7x	5.8x
Zai Lab LimitedZLAB	2,269	3.9x	3.6x
Adaptive Biotechnologies CorporationADPT	2,168	8.6x	8.4x
Industry Median		7.1x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		451	694
= Enterprise Value		3,197	3,182
(-) Net Debt		-90	-90
Equity Value		3,287	3,272
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$79	$78

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$78.49

+31.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$5.31 – $68.15

$19.82

-71.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.11 – $167.45

$48.53

-30.9%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$44.73 – $94.90

$78.46

+11.8%

DCF Analysis

Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$48.53

Market Price

$59.65

Upside / Downside

-18.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-15.7%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

7.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	694	53.7%	-9.9%	-69	-69	11	(51)	-27	-82	-78
2027	901	29.9%	-4.1%	-37	-37	14	(65)	14	-102	-90
2028	1,061	17.7%	1.7%	18	14	17	(75)	11	-55	-44
2029	1,199	13.0%	7.5%	90	71	19	(83)	10	-2	-2
2030	1,329	10.8%	13.3%	177	140	21	(90)	9	62	43
2031	1,727	30.0%	13.3%	230	182	27	(114)	27	68	43
2032	2,245	30.0%	13.3%	299	237	35	(145)	36	92	53
2033	2,919	30.0%	13.3%	389	308	46	(184)	46	123	66
2034	3,636	24.6%	13.3%	485	383	57	(224)	49	168	82
2035	4,138	13.8%	13.3%	552	436	65	(248)	34	219	99

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)171

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)3,919

PV of Terminal Value1,767

Enterprise Value1,938

(–) Net Debt-90

Equity Value2,028

(÷) Shares Outstanding42

Fair Value per Share$48.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$2	$44	$85	$126	$167
7.8%	$0	$31	$63	$94	$125
8.8%	$-1	$24	$49	$73	$98
9.8%	$-2	$18	$39	$59	$79
10.8%	$-3	$15	$32	$49	$66

Current price: $59.65. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 6.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$78.49

Market Price

$59.65

Upside / Downside

+31.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (TARS) has a fair value of $78.49 based on 6 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.TARS	2,492	5.3x	3.5x
Scholar Rock Holding CorporationSRRK	5,607	167.9x	—
Legend Biotech CorporationLEGN	3,455	2.9x	2.1x
Travere Therapeutics, Inc.TVTX	2,936	6.5x	4.6x
Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc.ARQT	2,934	7.7x	5.8x
Zai Lab LimitedZLAB	2,269	3.9x	3.6x
Adaptive Biotechnologies CorporationADPT	2,168	8.6x	8.4x
Industry Median		7.1x	4.6x
(*) Revenue		451	694
= Enterprise Value		3,197	3,182
(-) Net Debt		-90	-90
Equity Value		3,287	3,272
(/) Outstanding shares		42	42
Fair Price		$79	$78

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$78.49

+31.6%