Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Molson Coors Beverage Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -0.1% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 28, DPO 104, DIO 41). At a 5.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $174.07 per share, suggesting TAP is undervalued by 315.8% at the current price of $41.86.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,300 | 1,301 | 1,309 | 1,317 | 1,349 | 1,383 |
| (−) Net Interest | 248 | 248 | 250 | 251 | 257 | 264 |
| (+) D&A | 649 | 675 | 673 | 670 | 667 | 684 |
| EBITDA | 2,197 | 2,225 | 2,232 | 2,238 | 2,274 | 2,331 |
| (−) Tax | 283 | 283 | 285 | 286 | 293 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 651 | 652 | 656 | 660 | 676 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 57 | -0 | -2 | -2 | -9 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,206 | 1,290 | 1,294 | 1,294 | 1,313 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 19.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 44,282 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.50% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,175 | 1,191 | 1,131 | 1,073 | 1,032 | 33,874 |
| Enterprise Value | 39,476 | |||||
| Projection Period | 5,601 | 14.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 33,874 | 85.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,403 | |||||
| Equity Value | 34,073 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 196M | |||||
| Fair Price | $174 | +315.9% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 15.0x | 17.0x | 19.0x | 21.0x | 23.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5% | $153 | $173 | $193 | $213 | $233 |
| 4.5% | $145 | $164 | $183 | $202 | $221 |
| 5.5% | $138 | $156 | $174 | $192 | $211 |
| 6.5% | $131 | $148 | $165 | $183 | $200 |
| 7.5% | $124 | $141 | $157 | $174 | $190 |
Current price: $41.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.