Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Sysco Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.8% to 12.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 25, DPO 37, DIO 28). At a 6.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $91.81 per share, suggesting SYY is fairly valued by 10.4% at the current price of $83.15.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,384 | 2,502 | 2,586 | 2,639 | 2,962 | 3,036 |
| (−) Net Interest | 822 | 862 | 891 | 910 | 1,021 | 1,046 |
| (+) D&A | 727 | 803 | 856 | 882 | 904 | 927 |
| EBITDA | 3,932 | 4,168 | 4,333 | 4,431 | 4,887 | 5,009 |
| (−) Tax | 492 | 516 | 534 | 545 | 611 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 852 | 895 | 925 | 944 | 1,059 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 35 | 202 | 144 | 91 | 552 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,553 | 2,554 | 2,730 | 2,852 | 2,664 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 63,266 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.17% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,478 | 2,335 | 2,351 | 2,312 | 2,035 | 46,894 |
| Enterprise Value | 58,405 | |||||
| Projection Period | 11,511 | 19.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 46,894 | 80.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 13,423 | |||||
| Equity Value | 44,982 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 490M | |||||
| Fair Price | $92 | +10.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.6x | 10.6x | 12.6x | 14.6x | 16.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | $69 | $86 | $102 | $119 | $136 |
| 5.2% | $65 | $81 | $97 | $113 | $129 |
| 6.2% | $61 | $77 | $92 | $107 | $122 |
| 7.2% | $58 | $72 | $87 | $101 | $116 |
| 8.2% | $55 | $68 | $82 | $96 | $110 |
Current price: $83.15. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.