Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 1.1% dividend yield, Steel Dynamics, Inc. has a fair value of $343.47 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $13.74. The current PEG ratio is 0.46.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 26.5% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.1% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $13.74 |
| Fair Value | $343.47 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $7.99 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $13.74 | +71.9% | 9 |
| FY2027E | $15.83 | +15.2% | 8 |
| FY2028E | $16.16 | +2.1% | 5 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 26.5%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $3.2B | $15.56 | — |
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| FY2022 | $3.9B | $20.92 | +34.4% |
| FY2023 | $2.5B | $14.64 | -30.0% |
| FY2024 | $1.5B | $9.84 | -32.8% |
| FY2025 | $1.2B | $7.99 | -18.8% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -15.3%