SunPower Inc.

SPWR

EnergySolarNASDAQ

$1.14

Market Cap: $99.30M

SunPower Inc. (SPWR) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 9, 2026 22:21

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.24 – $9.01	$0.61	-45.4%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.21 – $32.83	$7.63	+581.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.20 – $0.89	$0.36	-67.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

SunPower Inc. (SPWR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.63

Market Price

$1.14

Upside / Downside

+569.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -2.0% to a target of 15.8% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 7.3%, SunPower Inc. (SPWR) has an intrinsic value of $7.63 per share (range: $0.21 – $32.83).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-2.0%

Target Operating Margin

15.8%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	423	36.8%	1.5%	6	5	4	(8)	111	-109	-105
2027	585	38.5%	5.1%	30	24	6	(14)	43	-27	-24
2028	2,051	250.6%	8.6%	177	140	21	(57)	384	-279	-235
2029	2,666	30.0%	12.2%	325	257	28	(87)	161	37	29
2030	3,466	30.0%	15.8%	546	431	36	(129)	209	130	94
2031	4,506	30.0%	15.8%	710	561	47	(188)	272	148	100
2032	5,858	30.0%	15.8%	923	729	61	(271)	354	165	105
2033	7,280	24.3%	15.8%	1,147	906	76	(370)	372	240	142
2034	8,530	17.2%	15.8%	1,344	1,061	89	(473)	327	351	193
2035	9,391	10.1%	15.8%	1,479	1,168	98	(563)	225	478	246

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)545

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)11,546

PV of Terminal Value5,930

Enterprise Value6,476

(–) Net Debt0

Equity Value6,476

(÷) Shares Outstanding849

Fair Value per Share$7.63

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.8%	12.8%	15.8%	18.8%	21.8%
5.3%	$0	$8	$17	$25	$33
6.3%	$-0	$5	$11	$16	$22
7.3%	$-0	$4	$8	$12	$16
8.3%	$-0	$3	$6	$9	$12
9.3%	$-0	$2	$5	$7	$10

Current price: $1.14. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

SunPower Inc. (SPWR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.61

Market Price

$1.14

Upside / Downside

-46.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-2.0%

Target Operating Margin

15.8%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	423	36.8%	1.5%	6	5	4	(10)	111	-111	-107
2027	585	38.5%	5.1%	30	24	6	(19)	43	-32	-29
2028	2,051	250.6%	8.6%	177	140	21	(86)	384	-308	-258
2029	2,666	30.0%	12.2%	325	257	28	(136)	161	-12	-9
2030	3,466	30.0%	15.8%	546	431	36	(208)	209	50	37

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-366

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,215

PV of Terminal Value886

Enterprise Value519

(–) Net Debt0

Equity Value519

(÷) Shares Outstanding849

Fair Value per Share$0.61

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.8%	12.8%	15.8%	18.8%	21.8%
5.3%	$-1	$-1	$2	$5	$9
6.3%	$-1	$-1	$1	$3	$6
7.3%	$-1	$-1	$1	$2	$4
8.3%	$-1	$-1	$0	$2	$3
9.3%	$-1	$-1	$0	$1	$3

Current price: $1.14. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.36

Market Price

$1.14

Upside / Downside

-68.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), SunPower Inc. (SPWR) has a fair value of $0.36 based on 7 comparable companies in the Solar industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Solar

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
SunPower Inc.SPWR	968	3.1x	9.9x
Tigo Energy, Inc.TYGO	273	2.6x	2.0x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.GTE	268	1.5x	1.4x
Aemetis, Inc.AMTX	160	2.3x	1.4x
Dynagas LNG Partners LPDLNG	147	2.4x	2.4x
DMC Global Inc.BOOM	106	0.3x	0.3x
FTC Solar, Inc.FTCI	56	0.7x	0.4x
Zeo Energy Corp.ZEO	34	0.6x	—
Industry Median		1.5x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		309	98
= Enterprise Value		471	140
(-) Net Debt		0	0
Equity Value		471	140
(/) Outstanding shares		849	849
Fair Price		$1	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.36

-68.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.24 – $9.01

$0.61

-45.4%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.21 – $32.83

$7.63

+581.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.20 – $0.89

$0.36

-67.9%

DCF Analysis

SunPower Inc. (SPWR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.63

Market Price

$1.14

Upside / Downside

+569.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-2.0%

Target Operating Margin

15.8%

WACC

7.3%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	423	36.8%	1.5%	6	5	4	(8)	111	-109	-105
2027	585	38.5%	5.1%	30	24	6	(14)	43	-27	-24
2028	2,051	250.6%	8.6%	177	140	21	(57)	384	-279	-235
2029	2,666	30.0%	12.2%	325	257	28	(87)	161	37	29
2030	3,466	30.0%	15.8%	546	431	36	(129)	209	130	94
2031	4,506	30.0%	15.8%	710	561	47	(188)	272	148	100
2032	5,858	30.0%	15.8%	923	729	61	(271)	354	165	105
2033	7,280	24.3%	15.8%	1,147	906	76	(370)	372	240	142
2034	8,530	17.2%	15.8%	1,344	1,061	89	(473)	327	351	193
2035	9,391	10.1%	15.8%	1,479	1,168	98	(563)	225	478	246

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)545

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)11,546

PV of Terminal Value5,930

Enterprise Value6,476

(–) Net Debt0

Equity Value6,476

(÷) Shares Outstanding849

Fair Value per Share$7.63

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.8%	12.8%	15.8%	18.8%	21.8%
5.3%	$0	$8	$17	$25	$33
6.3%	$-0	$5	$11	$16	$22
7.3%	$-0	$4	$8	$12	$16
8.3%	$-0	$3	$6	$9	$12
9.3%	$-0	$2	$5	$7	$10

Current price: $1.14. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 26.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.36

Market Price

$1.14

Upside / Downside

-68.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), SunPower Inc. (SPWR) has a fair value of $0.36 based on 7 comparable companies in the Solar industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Solar

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
SunPower Inc.SPWR	968	3.1x	9.9x
Tigo Energy, Inc.TYGO	273	2.6x	2.0x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.GTE	268	1.5x	1.4x
Aemetis, Inc.AMTX	160	2.3x	1.4x
Dynagas LNG Partners LPDLNG	147	2.4x	2.4x
DMC Global Inc.BOOM	106	0.3x	0.3x
FTC Solar, Inc.FTCI	56	0.7x	0.4x
Zeo Energy Corp.ZEO	34	0.6x	—
Industry Median		1.5x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		309	98
= Enterprise Value		471	140
(-) Net Debt		0	0
Equity Value		471	140
(/) Outstanding shares		849	849
Fair Price		$1	$0

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.36

-68.4%