Aemetis, Inc.

AMTX

EnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingNASDAQ

$2.59

Market Cap: $176.50M

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 15:02

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.10 – $23.21	$7.29	+181.7%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.23 – $19.17	$4.61	+78.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	-$2.12 – $7.77	$0.98	-62.3%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.61

Market Price

$2.59

Upside / Downside

+78.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -17.9% to a target of 15.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 10.8%, Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has an intrinsic value of $4.61 per share (range: $0.23 – $19.17).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.9%

Target Operating Margin

15.7%

WACC

10.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	322	54.6%	-11.2%	-36	-36	10	(40)	-0	-65	-62
2027	481	49.6%	-4.5%	-21	-21	16	(56)	-6	-56	-48
2028	815	69.3%	2.3%	18	14	27	(90)	-12	-36	-28
2029	933	14.6%	9.0%	84	66	30	(96)	-4	5	3
2030	1,008	8.0%	15.7%	158	125	33	(96)	-3	64	40
2031	1,009	0.1%	15.7%	158	125	33	(89)	-0	69	39
2032	1,016	0.7%	15.7%	159	126	33	(83)	-0	76	39
2033	1,029	1.3%	15.7%	161	127	33	(76)	-0	85	39
2034	1,048	1.8%	15.7%	164	130	34	(70)	-1	94	39
2035	1,073	2.4%	15.7%	168	133	35	(64)	-1	104	39

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)101

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,370

PV of Terminal Value515

Enterprise Value616

(–) Net Debt313

Equity Value303

(÷) Shares Outstanding66

Fair Value per Share$4.61

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.7%	12.7%	15.7%	18.7%	21.7%
8.8%	$0	$5	$10	$14	$19
9.8%	$-1	$3	$7	$11	$15
10.8%	$-2	$1	$5	$8	$11
11.8%	$-3	$-0	$3	$6	$9
12.8%	$-4	$-1	$2	$4	$7

Current price: $2.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$7.29

Market Price

$2.59

Upside / Downside

+181.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.9%

Target Operating Margin

15.7%

WACC

10.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	322	54.6%	-11.2%	-36	-36	10	(38)	-0	-63	-60
2027	481	49.6%	-4.5%	-21	-21	16	(49)	-6	-49	-42
2028	815	69.3%	2.3%	18	14	27	(72)	-12	-19	-15
2029	933	14.6%	9.0%	84	66	30	(69)	-4	32	22
2030	1,008	8.0%	15.7%	158	125	33	(60)	-3	100	63

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-32

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,311

PV of Terminal Value825

Enterprise Value793

(–) Net Debt313

Equity Value480

(÷) Shares Outstanding66

Fair Value per Share$7.29

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.7%	12.7%	15.7%	18.7%	21.7%
8.8%	$3	$8	$13	$18	$23
9.8%	$1	$6	$10	$14	$18
10.8%	$-0	$4	$7	$11	$15
11.8%	$-1	$2	$5	$9	$12
12.8%	$-2	$1	$4	$7	$10

Current price: $2.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.98

Market Price

$2.59

Upside / Downside

-62.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has a fair value of $0.98 based on 8 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aemetis, Inc.AMTX	170	2.3x	1.5x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.GTE	323	1.6x	1.5x
Kolibri Global Energy Inc.KGEI	182	4.0x	4.5x
DMC Global Inc.BOOM	152	0.4x	0.4x
Dynagas LNG Partners LPDLNG	140	2.4x	2.4x
XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common StockSAFX	96	10.4x	10.9x
SunPower Inc.SPWR	89	0.3x	0.9x
FTC Solar, Inc.FTCI	70	0.8x	0.5x
Zeo Energy Corp.ZEO	51	0.9x	—
Industry Median		1.3x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		208	322
= Enterprise Value		261	493
(-) Net Debt		313	313
Equity Value		-52	180
(/) Outstanding shares		66	66
Fair Price		$-1	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.98

-62.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.10 – $23.21

$7.29

+181.7%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.23 – $19.17

$4.61

+78.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

-$2.12 – $7.77

$0.98

-62.3%

DCF Analysis

Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.61

Market Price

$2.59

Upside / Downside

+78.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-17.9%

Target Operating Margin

15.7%

WACC

10.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

13.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

3.3%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	322	54.6%	-11.2%	-36	-36	10	(40)	-0	-65	-62
2027	481	49.6%	-4.5%	-21	-21	16	(56)	-6	-56	-48
2028	815	69.3%	2.3%	18	14	27	(90)	-12	-36	-28
2029	933	14.6%	9.0%	84	66	30	(96)	-4	5	3
2030	1,008	8.0%	15.7%	158	125	33	(96)	-3	64	40
2031	1,009	0.1%	15.7%	158	125	33	(89)	-0	69	39
2032	1,016	0.7%	15.7%	159	126	33	(83)	-0	76	39
2033	1,029	1.3%	15.7%	161	127	33	(76)	-0	85	39
2034	1,048	1.8%	15.7%	164	130	34	(70)	-1	94	39
2035	1,073	2.4%	15.7%	168	133	35	(64)	-1	104	39

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)101

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,370

PV of Terminal Value515

Enterprise Value616

(–) Net Debt313

Equity Value303

(÷) Shares Outstanding66

Fair Value per Share$4.61

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	9.7%	12.7%	15.7%	18.7%	21.7%
8.8%	$0	$5	$10	$14	$19
9.8%	$-1	$3	$7	$11	$15
10.8%	$-2	$1	$5	$8	$11
11.8%	$-3	$-0	$3	$6	$9
12.8%	$-4	$-1	$2	$4	$7

Current price: $2.59. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -3.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$0.98

Market Price

$2.59

Upside / Downside

-62.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) has a fair value of $0.98 based on 8 comparable companies in the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Aemetis, Inc.AMTX	170	2.3x	1.5x
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.GTE	323	1.6x	1.5x
Kolibri Global Energy Inc.KGEI	182	4.0x	4.5x
DMC Global Inc.BOOM	152	0.4x	0.4x
Dynagas LNG Partners LPDLNG	140	2.4x	2.4x
XCF Global, Inc. Class A Common StockSAFX	96	10.4x	10.9x
SunPower Inc.SPWR	89	0.3x	0.9x
FTC Solar, Inc.FTCI	70	0.8x	0.5x
Zeo Energy Corp.ZEO	51	0.9x	—
Industry Median		1.3x	1.5x
(*) Revenue		208	322
= Enterprise Value		261	493
(-) Net Debt		313	313
Equity Value		-52	180
(/) Outstanding shares		66	66
Fair Price		$-1	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$0.98

-62.3%