Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project S&P Global Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.6% to 5.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 78, DPO 44, DIO 60). At a 7.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $363.90 per share, suggesting SPGI is fairly valued by 11.9% at the current price of $413.16.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 7,079 | 7,594 | 8,138 | 8,544 | 9,036 | 9,262 |
| (−) Net Interest | 356 | 382 | 409 | 430 | 454 | 466 |
| (+) D&A | 117 | 140 | 154 | 160 | 171 | 175 |
| EBITDA | 7,552 | 8,116 | 8,701 | 9,134 | 9,661 | 9,903 |
| (−) Tax | 1,586 | 1,701 | 1,823 | 1,914 | 2,024 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 149 | 160 | 171 | 179 | 190 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 917 | 273 | 288 | 215 | 260 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 4,900 | 5,982 | 6,419 | 6,825 | 7,187 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 140,127 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.51% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4,726 | 5,366 | 5,356 | 5,296 | 5,188 | 97,552 |
| Enterprise Value | 123,484 | |||||
| Projection Period | 25,932 | 21.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 97,552 | 79.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 12,455 | |||||
| Equity Value | 111,029 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 305M | |||||
| Fair Price | $364 | -11.9% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.1x | 12.1x | 14.1x | 16.1x | 18.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $300 | $350 | $400 | $449 | $499 |
| 6.5% | $287 | $334 | $381 | $429 | $476 |
| 7.5% | $274 | $319 | $364 | $409 | $454 |
| 8.5% | $261 | $304 | $347 | $391 | $434 |
| 9.5% | $249 | $291 | $332 | $373 | $414 |
Current price: $413.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.