Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 4.7% dividend yield, Simon Property Group, Inc. has a fair value of $53.79 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $6.72.
| EPS Growth RateForward | -12.9% |
| Dividend Yield | +4.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $6.72 |
| Fair Value | $53.79 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $14.14 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $6.72 | -52.5% | 7 |
| FY2027E | $6.93 | +3.1% | 7 |
| FY2028E | $6.90 | -0.5% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $7.18 | +4.1% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $7.10 | -1.2% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: -12.9%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $2.2B | $6.84 | — |
| FY2022 | $2.1B | $6.52 | -4.7% |
| FY2023 | $2.3B | $6.98 | +7.1% |
| FY2024 | $2.4B | $7.26 | +4.0% |
| FY2025 | $4.6B | $14.14 | +94.8% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 19.9%