Standard Motor Products, Inc.

SMP

Consumer CyclicalAuto - PartsNYSE

$39.00

Market Cap: $868.27M

Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$22.08 – $203.46	$51.22	+45.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$48.91 – $354.13	$97.98	+177.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$63.70 – $159.43	$107.55	+204.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$69.52 – $188.65	$120.19	+240.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$75.00 – $85.28	$78.46	+122.1%
EV/EBITDA	$54.16 – $103.14	$84.36	+138.8%
EV/Revenue	$48.69 – $1,276.43	$153.38	+334.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$28.16 – $28.16	$28.16	-20.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$39.87 – $77.01	$54.41	+54.0%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$13.75 – $28.52	$19.03	-46.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$51.22

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+31.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Standard Motor Products, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 8.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 204). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $51.22 per share, suggesting SMP is undervalued by 31.3% at the current price of $39.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	216
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	22
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	45
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	282

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	54
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	56
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	85
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	83	103	104	46	84	86

Terminal Value						1,957
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	1,401

Enterprise Value	1,762
Projection Period	361	20.5%
Terminal Value	1,401	79.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	610

Equity Value	1,152
(/) Outstanding Shares	22

Fair Price	$51.22

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$78	$93	$115	$148	$203
5.9%	$55	$63	$74	$88	$109
6.9%	$40	$45	$51	$59	$69
7.9%	$30	$33	$37	$42	$48
8.9%	$22	$25	$27	$31	$35

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$97.98

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+151.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Standard Motor Products, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 204). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (73% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $97.98 per share, suggesting SMP is undervalued by 151.2% at the current price of $39.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	226	241	255	267	277	284
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	23	24	25	27	28	28
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	47	50	54	58	62	63
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	295	315	334	352	367	376

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	57	61	64	67	70	71
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	58	62	66	69	72	73
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	81	76	70	63	53	55
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	83	103	104	46	84	99	116	134	153	172	176

Terminal Value											3,999
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	69	75	81	87	91	2,049

Enterprise Value	2,813
Projection Period	764	27.2%
Terminal Value	2,049	72.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	610

Equity Value	2,203
(/) Outstanding Shares	22

Fair Price	$97.98

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$153	$177	$212	$264	$354
5.9%	$109	$121	$138	$160	$192
6.9%	$81	$89	$98	$110	$125
7.9%	$62	$67	$73	$80	$88
8.9%	$49	$52	$56	$60	$66

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$107.59

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+175.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Standard Motor Products, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 8.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 204). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $107.55 per share, suggesting SMP is undervalued by 175.8% at the current price of $39.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	216
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	22
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	45
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	282

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	—
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	—
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	83	103	104	46	84	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.2x
Terminal Value						3,727
WACC / Discount Rate	6.91%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	2,668

Enterprise Value	3,029
Projection Period	361	11.9%
Terminal Value	2,668	88.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	610
Equity Value	2,419
(÷) Outstanding Shares	22M
Fair Price	$108	+175.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x
4.9%	$81	$100	$120	$140	$159
5.9%	$76	$95	$114	$132	$151
6.9%	$72	$90	$108	$125	$143
7.9%	$68	$85	$102	$119	$136
8.9%	$64	$80	$96	$113	$129

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$120.23

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+208.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Standard Motor Products, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 204). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $120.19 per share, suggesting SMP is undervalued by 208.2% at the current price of $39.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	226	241	255	267	277	284
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	23	24	25	27	28	28
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	47	50	54	58	62	63
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	295	315	334	352	367	376

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	57	61	64	67	70	—
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	58	62	66	69	72	—
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	81	76	70	63	53	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	83	103	104	46	84	99	116	134	153	172	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.2x
Terminal Value											4,975
WACC / Discount Rate	6.91%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	69	75	81	87	91	2,549

Enterprise Value	3,313
Projection Period	764	23.1%
Terminal Value	2,549	76.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	610
Equity Value	2,703
(÷) Outstanding Shares	22M
Fair Price	$120	+208.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x
4.9%	$106	$127	$147	$168	$189
5.9%	$95	$114	$133	$152	$171
6.9%	$86	$103	$120	$137	$154
7.9%	$77	$93	$109	$124	$140
8.9%	$70	$84	$98	$112	$126

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$59.35

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+52.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) has a fair value of $59.35 based on 2 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.

P/E Valuation — Auto - Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Standard Motor Products, Inc.SMP	877	21.2x	9.8x
XPEL, Inc.XPEL	1,239	24.3x	25.9x
Douglas Dynamics, Inc.PLOW	970	21.3x	19.4x
Industry Median		22.8x	22.6x
(*) Profit after tax		41	89
Equity Value		942	1,726
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$42	$77

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.35

+52.2%

Fair Value

$108.59

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+178.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) has a fair value of $108.59 based on 3 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Auto - Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Standard Motor Products, Inc.SMP	877	6.5x	6.5x
XPEL, Inc.XPEL	1,239	15.6x	17.7x
Douglas Dynamics, Inc.PLOW	970	13.2x	13.5x
Camping World Holdings, Inc.CWH	403	9.8x	10.3x
Industry Median		13.2x	13.5x
(*) EBITDA		228	228
= Enterprise Value		3,014	3,089
(-) Net Debt		610	610
Equity Value		2,404	2,479
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$107	$110

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$108.59

+178.4%

Fair Value

$153.38

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+293.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) has a fair value of $153.38 based on 6 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Auto - Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Standard Motor Products, Inc.SMP	877	0.8x	0.8x
XPEL, Inc.XPEL	1,239	2.5x	2.9x
Douglas Dynamics, Inc.PLOW	970	1.8x	1.8x
Aeva Technologies, Inc.AEVA	799	45.8x	25.2x
Fox Factory Holding Corp.FOXF	675	1.0x	1.0x
Camping World Holdings, Inc.CWH	403	0.4x	0.5x
SES AI CorporationSES	365	16.4x	10.7x
Industry Median		2.2x	2.4x
(*) Revenue		1,791	1,794
= Enterprise Value		3,884	4,234
(-) Net Debt		610	610
Equity Value		3,274	3,623
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$146	$161

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$153.38

+293.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$28.16

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

-27.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 3.5% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $28.16 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $3.52. The current PEG ratio is 44.01.

PEG Ratio

44.01Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 10.0 ÷ (-3.3% + 3.5%) = 44.01

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: TurnaroundPEG less reliable

PEG is unreliable for companies with declining earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	-3.3%
Dividend Yield	+3.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$3.52
Fair Value	$28.16

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$90.9M	$4.02	—
FY2022	$73.0M	$3.30	-17.9%
FY2023	$63.1M	$2.85	-13.6%
FY2024	$53.6M	$2.41	-15.4%
FY2025	$79.0M	$3.52	+46.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -3.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$54.41

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+39.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.9% and normalized earnings of $126.7M, the company has a fair value of $54.41 per share. The EPV range is $39.87 – $77.01 based on WACC sensitivity (5.4% – 8.4%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	127	127	127
(/) WACC	8.4%	6.9%	5.4%
Enterprise Value	1,507	1,833	2,341
(-) Net debt	610	610	610
Equity Value	896	1,223	1,731
(/) Outstanding shares	22	22	22
Fair Price	$39.87	$54.41	$77.01

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$19.03

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

-51.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.9% and projected dividend growth of 5.5%, the fair value is $19.03 per share. The DDM range is $13.75 – $28.52 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.21

Dividend Yield

3.49%

Payout Ratio

34.5%

Dividend Coverage

2.90x

FCF Payout Ratio145.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.21	34.5%	+6.4%
2024	$1.14	47.3%	+0.4%
2023	$1.14	39.9%	+7.3%
2022	$1.06	32.1%	+7.9%
2021	$0.98	24.4%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.28	5.5%	0.9099	$1.16
2027	$1.35	5.5%	0.8279	$1.12
2028	$1.42	5.5%	0.7533	$1.07
2029	$1.50	5.5%	0.6854	$1.03
2030	$1.58	5.5%	0.6236	$0.99
Terminal Value	$1.62 DPS	2.5%		$13.66

PV of Projected Dividends$5.37

PV of Terminal Value$13.66

Fair Value per Share$19.03

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.5%	4.5%	5.5%	6.5%	7.5%
7.9%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$29
8.9%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24
9.9%	$17	$18	$19	$20	$21
10.9%	$15	$16	$17	$17	$18
11.9%	$14	$14	$15	$16	$16

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$22.08 – $203.46	$51.22	+45.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$48.91 – $354.13	$97.98	+177.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$63.70 – $159.43	$107.55	+204.4%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$69.52 – $188.65	$120.19	+240.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$75.00 – $85.28	$78.46	+122.1%
EV/EBITDA	$54.16 – $103.14	$84.36	+138.8%
EV/Revenue	$48.69 – $1,276.43	$153.38	+334.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$28.16 – $28.16	$28.16	-20.3%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$39.87 – $77.01	$54.41	+54.0%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$13.75 – $28.52	$19.03	-46.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$51.22

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+31.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	216
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	22
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	45
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	282

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	54
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	56
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	85
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	83	103	104	46	84	86

Terminal Value						1,957
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	1,401

Enterprise Value	1,762
Projection Period	361	20.5%
Terminal Value	1,401	79.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	610

Equity Value	1,152
(/) Outstanding Shares	22

Fair Price	$51.22

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$78	$93	$115	$148	$203
5.9%	$55	$63	$74	$88	$109
6.9%	$40	$45	$51	$59	$69
7.9%	$30	$33	$37	$42	$48
8.9%	$22	$25	$27	$31	$35

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$97.98

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+151.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	226	241	255	267	277	284
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	23	24	25	27	28	28
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	47	50	54	58	62	63
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	295	315	334	352	367	376

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	57	61	64	67	70	71
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	58	62	66	69	72	73
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	81	76	70	63	53	55
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	83	103	104	46	84	99	116	134	153	172	176

Terminal Value											3,999
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	69	75	81	87	91	2,049

Enterprise Value	2,813
Projection Period	764	27.2%
Terminal Value	2,049	72.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	610

Equity Value	2,203
(/) Outstanding Shares	22

Fair Price	$97.98

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.9%	$153	$177	$212	$264	$354
5.9%	$109	$121	$138	$160	$192
6.9%	$81	$89	$98	$110	$125
7.9%	$62	$67	$73	$80	$88
8.9%	$49	$52	$56	$60	$66

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$107.59

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+175.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Standard Motor Products, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 8.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 204). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $107.55 per share, suggesting SMP is undervalued by 175.8% at the current price of $39.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	216
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	22
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	45
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	282

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	—
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	—
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	83	103	104	46	84	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.2x
Terminal Value						3,727
WACC / Discount Rate	6.91%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	2,668

Enterprise Value	3,029
Projection Period	361	11.9%
Terminal Value	2,668	88.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	610
Equity Value	2,419
(÷) Outstanding Shares	22M
Fair Price	$108	+175.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x
4.9%	$81	$100	$120	$140	$159
5.9%	$76	$95	$114	$132	$151
6.9%	$72	$90	$108	$125	$143
7.9%	$68	$85	$102	$119	$136
8.9%	$64	$80	$96	$113	$129

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$120.23

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+208.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Standard Motor Products, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 204). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.2x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $120.19 per share, suggesting SMP is undervalued by 208.2% at the current price of $39.00.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.91%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.23x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	160	165	173	194	210	226	241	255	267	277	284
(−) Net Interest	16	17	17	19	21	23	24	25	27	28	28
(+) D&A	33	36	39	42	43	47	50	54	58	62	63
EBITDA	208	218	229	256	275	295	315	334	352	367	376

(−) Tax	40	42	43	49	53	57	61	64	67	70	—
(−) CapEx	41	43	45	50	54	58	62	66	69	72	—
(−) ΔWC	44	30	36	110	83	81	76	70	63	53	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	83	103	104	46	84	99	116	134	153	172	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.2x
Terminal Value											4,975
WACC / Discount Rate	6.91%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	80	93	88	37	62	69	75	81	87	91	2,549

Enterprise Value	3,313
Projection Period	764	23.1%
Terminal Value	2,549	76.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	610
Equity Value	2,703
(÷) Outstanding Shares	22M
Fair Price	$120	+208.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.2x	11.2x	13.2x	15.2x	17.2x
4.9%	$106	$127	$147	$168	$189
5.9%	$95	$114	$133	$152	$171
6.9%	$86	$103	$120	$137	$154
7.9%	$77	$93	$109	$124	$140
8.9%	$70	$84	$98	$112	$126

Current price: $39.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$59.35

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+52.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

P/E Valuation — Auto - Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Standard Motor Products, Inc.SMP	877	21.2x	9.8x
XPEL, Inc.XPEL	1,239	24.3x	25.9x
Douglas Dynamics, Inc.PLOW	970	21.3x	19.4x
Industry Median		22.8x	22.6x
(*) Profit after tax		41	89
Equity Value		942	1,726
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$42	$77

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.35

+52.2%

Fair Value

$108.59

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+178.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) has a fair value of $108.59 based on 3 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Auto - Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Standard Motor Products, Inc.SMP	877	6.5x	6.5x
XPEL, Inc.XPEL	1,239	15.6x	17.7x
Douglas Dynamics, Inc.PLOW	970	13.2x	13.5x
Camping World Holdings, Inc.CWH	403	9.8x	10.3x
Industry Median		13.2x	13.5x
(*) EBITDA		228	228
= Enterprise Value		3,014	3,089
(-) Net Debt		610	610
Equity Value		2,404	2,479
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$107	$110

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$108.59

+178.4%

Fair Value

$153.38

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+293.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Standard Motor Products, Inc. (SMP) has a fair value of $153.38 based on 6 comparable companies in the Auto - Parts industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Auto - Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Standard Motor Products, Inc.SMP	877	0.8x	0.8x
XPEL, Inc.XPEL	1,239	2.5x	2.9x
Douglas Dynamics, Inc.PLOW	970	1.8x	1.8x
Aeva Technologies, Inc.AEVA	799	45.8x	25.2x
Fox Factory Holding Corp.FOXF	675	1.0x	1.0x
Camping World Holdings, Inc.CWH	403	0.4x	0.5x
SES AI CorporationSES	365	16.4x	10.7x
Industry Median		2.2x	2.4x
(*) Revenue		1,791	1,794
= Enterprise Value		3,884	4,234
(-) Net Debt		610	610
Equity Value		3,274	3,623
(/) Outstanding shares		22	22
Fair Price		$146	$161

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$153.38

+293.3%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$28.16

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

-27.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 8.0% plus 3.5% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $28.16 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $3.52. The current PEG ratio is 44.01.

PEG Ratio

44.01Expensive

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 10.0 ÷ (-3.3% + 3.5%) = 44.01

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: TurnaroundPEG less reliable

PEG is unreliable for companies with declining earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateHistorical	-3.3%
Dividend Yield	+3.5%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	8.0%
Fair P/E	8.0x
TTM EPS (FY2025)	$3.52
Fair Value	$28.16

Growth Analysis

Forward Growth

No analyst estimates available.

Historical GrowthActive

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$90.9M	$4.02	—
FY2022	$73.0M	$3.30	-17.9%
FY2023	$63.1M	$2.85	-13.6%
FY2024	$53.6M	$2.41	-15.4%
FY2025	$79.0M	$3.52	+46.0%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -3.3%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$54.41

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

+39.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	127	127	127
(/) WACC	8.4%	6.9%	5.4%
Enterprise Value	1,507	1,833	2,341
(-) Net debt	610	610	610
Equity Value	896	1,223	1,731
(/) Outstanding shares	22	22	22
Fair Price	$39.87	$54.41	$77.01

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$19.03

Market Price

$39.00

Upside / Downside

-51.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.21

Dividend Yield

3.49%

Payout Ratio

34.5%

Dividend Coverage

2.90x

FCF Payout Ratio145.7%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.5%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.21	34.5%	+6.4%
2024	$1.14	47.3%	+0.4%
2023	$1.14	39.9%	+7.3%
2022	$1.06	32.1%	+7.9%
2021	$0.98	24.4%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.28	5.5%	0.9099	$1.16
2027	$1.35	5.5%	0.8279	$1.12
2028	$1.42	5.5%	0.7533	$1.07
2029	$1.50	5.5%	0.6854	$1.03
2030	$1.58	5.5%	0.6236	$0.99
Terminal Value	$1.62 DPS	2.5%		$13.66

PV of Projected Dividends$5.37

PV of Terminal Value$13.66

Fair Value per Share$19.03

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.5%	4.5%	5.5%	6.5%	7.5%
7.9%	$24	$25	$26	$27	$29
8.9%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24
9.9%	$17	$18	$19	$20	$21
10.9%	$15	$16	$17	$17	$18
11.9%	$14	$14	$15	$16	$16