Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 85.1% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 48, DIO 111). At a 7.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (104% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $102.32 per share, suggesting SMCI is undervalued by 364.2% at the current price of $22.04.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,741 | 3,263 | 3,776 | 4,184 | 5,440 | 5,576 |
| (−) Net Interest | 60 | 72 | 83 | 92 | 120 | 123 |
| (+) D&A | 78 | 139 | 215 | 307 | 392 | 402 |
| EBITDA | 2,880 | 3,473 | 4,074 | 4,583 | 5,951 | 6,100 |
| (−) Tax | 298 | 355 | 411 | 456 | 592 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 360 | 428 | 496 | 549 | 714 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 6,615 | 2,328 | 2,290 | 1,823 | 5,602 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -4,394 | 362 | 877 | 1,755 | -957 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 97,176 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.91% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -4,230 | 323 | 725 | 1,345 | -679 | 66,424 |
| Enterprise Value | 63,908 | |||||
| Projection Period | -2,517 | -3.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 66,424 | 103.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (391) | |||||
| Equity Value | 64,299 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 628M | |||||
| Fair Price | $102 | +364.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.9x | 13.9x | 15.9x | 17.9x | 19.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.9% | $84 | $98 | $113 | $127 | $142 |
| 6.9% | $80 | $93 | $107 | $121 | $135 |
| 7.9% | $76 | $89 | $102 | $116 | $129 |
| 8.9% | $72 | $85 | $98 | $110 | $123 |
| 9.9% | $69 | $81 | $93 | $105 | $117 |
Current price: $22.04. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.