Stifel Financial Corp.

Financial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsNYSE

$76.16

Market Cap: $11.71B

Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 15:00

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$434.09 – $1,066.96	$587.64	+671.6%
Growth Exit 10Y	$444.20 – $1,019.83	$586.25	+669.8%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$376.80 – $588.51	$474.13	+522.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$424.38 – $679.54	$534.25	+601.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$74.55 – $150.48	$99.72	+30.9%
EV/EBITDA	$88.57 – $164.41	$122.10	+60.3%
EV/Revenue	$56.50 – $195.12	$131.38	+72.5%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$73.91 – $73.91	$73.91	-3.0%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$159.16 – $229.06	$187.79	+146.6%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$41.43 – $105.31	$63.29	-16.9%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$587.64

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+671.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Stifel Financial Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.3% to 7.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 96, DPO 7327, DIO 60). At a 8.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (63% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $587.64 per share, suggesting SF is undervalued by 671.6% at the current price of $76.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.29%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,542	1,680	1,825	1,943	2,088	2,140
(−) Net Interest	614	669	727	774	832	852
(+) D&A	92	76	83	99	111	114
EBITDA	2,248	2,425	2,635	2,816	3,031	3,107

(−) Tax	360	392	426	453	487	499
(−) CapEx	109	119	129	138	148	152
(−) ΔWC	-12,802	-990	-1,044	-851	-1,042	-1,068
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	14,581	2,904	3,124	3,076	3,438	3,524

Terminal Value						60,853
WACC / Discount Rate	8.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	14,012	2,577	2,560	2,327	2,403	40,861

Enterprise Value	64,740
Projection Period	23,878	36.9%
Terminal Value	40,861	63.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	(103)

Equity Value	64,843
(/) Outstanding Shares	110

Fair Price	$587.64

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.3%	$715	$772	$845	$939	$1067
7.3%	$608	$645	$689	$744	$813
8.3%	$533	$558	$588	$623	$665
9.3%	$477	$495	$516	$540	$568
10.3%	$434	$448	$463	$480	$500

Current price: $76.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$586.25

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+669.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Stifel Financial Corp.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.3% to 3.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 96, DPO 7327, DIO 60). At a 8.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (47% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $586.25 per share, suggesting SF is undervalued by 669.8% at the current price of $76.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.29%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,542	1,680	1,825	1,943	2,088	2,228	2,361	2,485	2,596	2,694	2,761
(−) Net Interest	614	669	727	774	832	887	940	990	1,034	1,073	1,100
(+) D&A	92	76	83	99	111	129	138	148	157	167	171
EBITDA	2,248	2,425	2,635	2,816	3,031	3,244	3,440	3,622	3,788	3,933	4,031

(−) Tax	360	392	426	453	487	520	551	580	606	629	644
(−) CapEx	109	119	129	138	148	158	167	176	184	191	195
(−) ΔWC	-12,802	-990	-1,044	-851	-1,042	-1,008	-957	-888	-802	-699	-716
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	14,581	2,904	3,124	3,076	3,438	3,575	3,679	3,755	3,800	3,812	3,908

Terminal Value											67,475
WACC / Discount Rate	8.3%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	14,012	2,577	2,560	2,327	2,403	2,307	2,192	2,066	1,931	1,789	30,423

Enterprise Value	64,586
Projection Period	34,163	52.9%
Terminal Value	30,423	47.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	(103)

Equity Value	64,689
(/) Outstanding Shares	110

Fair Price	$586.25

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.3%	$732	$779	$838	$915	$1020
7.3%	$623	$651	$686	$728	$782
8.3%	$546	$564	$586	$612	$644
9.3%	$488	$501	$516	$533	$553
10.3%	$444	$453	$464	$475	$489

Current price: $76.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$474.09

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+522.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Stifel Financial Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.3% to 7.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 96, DPO 7327, DIO 60). At a 8.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (54% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $474.13 per share, suggesting SF is undervalued by 522.5% at the current price of $76.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.29%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.58x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,542	1,680	1,825	1,943	2,088	2,140
(−) Net Interest	614	669	727	774	832	852
(+) D&A	92	76	83	99	111	114
EBITDA	2,248	2,425	2,635	2,816	3,031	3,107

(−) Tax	360	392	426	453	487	—
(−) CapEx	109	119	129	138	148	—
(−) ΔWC	-12,802	-990	-1,044	-851	-1,042	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	14,581	2,904	3,124	3,076	3,438	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.6x
Terminal Value						42,193
WACC / Discount Rate	8.29%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	14,012	2,577	2,560	2,327	2,403	28,332

Enterprise Value	52,210
Projection Period	23,878	45.7%
Terminal Value	28,332	54.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	(103)
Equity Value	52,313
(÷) Outstanding Shares	110M
Fair Price	$474	+522.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x	15.6x	17.6x
6.3%	$422	$464	$505	$547	$589
7.3%	$410	$450	$489	$529	$569
8.3%	$398	$436	$474	$512	$550
9.3%	$387	$423	$460	$496	$532
10.3%	$377	$411	$446	$480	$515

Current price: $76.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$534.22

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+601.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Stifel Financial Corp.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.3% to 3.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 96, DPO 7327, DIO 60). At a 8.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (42% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $534.25 per share, suggesting SF is undervalued by 601.5% at the current price of $76.16.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.29%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.58x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,542	1,680	1,825	1,943	2,088	2,228	2,361	2,485	2,596	2,694	2,761
(−) Net Interest	614	669	727	774	832	887	940	990	1,034	1,073	1,100
(+) D&A	92	76	83	99	111	129	138	148	157	167	171
EBITDA	2,248	2,425	2,635	2,816	3,031	3,244	3,440	3,622	3,788	3,933	4,031

(−) Tax	360	392	426	453	487	520	551	580	606	629	—
(−) CapEx	109	119	129	138	148	158	167	176	184	191	—
(−) ΔWC	-12,802	-990	-1,044	-851	-1,042	-1,008	-957	-888	-802	-699	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	14,581	2,904	3,124	3,076	3,438	3,575	3,679	3,755	3,800	3,812	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.6x
Terminal Value											54,742
WACC / Discount Rate	8.29%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	14,012	2,577	2,560	2,327	2,403	2,307	2,192	2,066	1,931	1,789	24,682

Enterprise Value	58,845
Projection Period	34,163	58.1%
Terminal Value	24,682	41.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	(103)
Equity Value	58,948
(÷) Outstanding Shares	110M
Fair Price	$534	+601.4%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x	15.6x	17.6x
6.3%	$521	$560	$600	$640	$680
7.3%	$493	$530	$566	$602	$638
8.3%	$468	$501	$534	$567	$600
9.3%	$445	$475	$506	$536	$566
10.3%	$424	$452	$479	$507	$534

Current price: $76.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$99.72

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+30.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) has a fair value of $99.72 based on 7 comparable companies in the Financial - Capital Markets industry.

P/E Valuation — Financial - Capital Markets

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Stifel Financial Corp.SF	8,404	13.0x	15.6x
Reinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedRGA	13,952	12.0x	10.1x
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY	13,622	18.7x	14.8x
Evercore Inc.EVR	13,513	24.3x	25.4x
CNA Financial CorporationCNA	11,779	9.3x	—
First Horizon CorporationFHN	11,754	13.1x	16.3x
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.JEF	10,833	18.7x	18.1x
Houlihan Lokey, Inc.HLI	10,668	24.6x	25.5x
Industry Median		18.7x	17.2x
(*) Profit after tax		684	537
Equity Value		12,764	9,243
(/) Outstanding shares		110	110
Fair Price		$116	$84

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$99.72

+30.9%

Fair Value

$122.10

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+60.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) has a fair value of $122.10 based on 8 comparable companies in the Financial - Capital Markets industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Financial - Capital Markets

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Stifel Financial Corp.SF	8,404	8.9x	10.3x
Reinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedRGA	13,952	7.9x	7.7x
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY	13,622	10.4x	15.5x
Evercore Inc.EVR	13,513	16.4x	17.3x
CNA Financial CorporationCNA	11,779	7.8x	5.6x
First Horizon CorporationFHN	11,754	11.5x	17.4x
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.JEF	10,833	19.3x	28.7x
Houlihan Lokey, Inc.HLI	10,668	15.7x	17.4x
Galaxy DigitalGLXY	10,027	22.8x	22.2x
Industry Median		13.6x	17.4x
(*) EBITDA		934	810
= Enterprise Value		12,679	14,061
(-) Net Debt		-103	-103
Equity Value		12,782	14,164
(/) Outstanding shares		110	110
Fair Price		$116	$128

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$122.10

+60.3%

Fair Value

$131.38

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+72.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Stifel Financial Corp. (SF) has a fair value of $131.38 based on 8 comparable companies in the Financial - Capital Markets industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Financial - Capital Markets

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Stifel Financial Corp.SF	8,404	1.3x	1.5x
Reinsurance Group of America, IncorporatedRGA	13,952	0.7x	0.7x
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY	13,622	2.1x	3.1x
Evercore Inc.EVR	13,513	3.4x	3.6x
CNA Financial CorporationCNA	11,779	1.0x	0.7x
First Horizon CorporationFHN	11,754	3.1x	4.7x
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.JEF	10,833	1.9x	2.8x
Houlihan Lokey, Inc.HLI	10,668	3.6x	4.0x
Galaxy DigitalGLXY	10,027	0.2x	0.2x
Industry Median		2.0x	3.0x
(*) Revenue		6,298	5,463
= Enterprise Value		12,547	16,239
(-) Net Debt		-103	-103
Equity Value		12,650	16,343
(/) Outstanding shares		110	110
Fair Price		$115	$148

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$131.38

+72.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$73.91

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

-3.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 11.8% plus 1.8% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $73.91 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $6.25. The current PEG ratio is 1.03.

PEG Ratio

1.03Fair Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 12.2 ÷ (10.1% + 1.8%) = 1.03

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	10.1%
Dividend Yield	+1.8%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	11.8%
Fair P/E	11.8x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$6.25
Fair Value	$73.91

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$5.88	—	—
FY2026E	$6.25	+6.3%	4
FY2027E	$7.12	+13.9%	5

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$824.9M	$6.66	—
FY2022	$662.2M	$5.32	-20.1%
FY2023	$522.5M	$4.28	-19.5%
FY2024	$731.4M	$6.25	+46.0%
FY2025	$683.8M	$5.88	-5.9%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -3.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$187.79

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

+146.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.3% and normalized earnings of $1.7B, the company has a fair value of $187.79 per share. The EPV range is $159.16 – $229.06 based on WACC sensitivity (6.8% – 9.8%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,710	1,710	1,710
(/) WACC	9.8%	8.3%	6.8%
Enterprise Value	17,460	20,618	25,172
(-) Net debt	-103	-103	-103
Equity Value	17,563	20,721	25,275
(/) Outstanding shares	110	110	110
Fair Price	$159.16	$187.79	$229.06

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$63.29

Market Price

$76.16

Upside / Downside

-16.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.6% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $63.29 per share. The DDM range is $41.43 – $105.31 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$1.87

Dividend Yield

1.76%

Payout Ratio

30.2%

Dividend Coverage

3.32x

FCF Payout Ratio17.2%

DPS CAGR (4Y)35.2%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$1.87	30.2%	+9.2%
2024	$1.71	26.0%	+19.2%
2023	$1.44	31.2%	+26.2%
2022	$1.14	20.2%	+103.3%
2021	$0.56	8.0%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$2.15	15.0%	0.9290	$2.00
2027	$2.47	15.0%	0.8630	$2.13
2028	$2.84	15.0%	0.8017	$2.28
2029	$3.27	15.0%	0.7448	$2.44
2030	$3.76	15.0%	0.6919	$2.60
Terminal Value	$3.85 DPS	2.5%		$51.85

PV of Projected Dividends$11.45

PV of Terminal Value$51.85

Fair Value per Share$63.29

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.6%	$97	$101	$105	$105	$105
6.6%	$73	$76	$79	$79	$79
7.6%	$58	$61	$63	$63	$63
8.6%	$49	$51	$53	$53	$53
9.6%	$41	$43	$45	$45	$45

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.