Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project SBA Communications Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 0.8% to 4.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 43, DPO 25, DIO 60). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $151.24 per share, suggesting SBAC is fairly valued by 8.7% at the current price of $165.64.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,582 | 1,624 | 1,682 | 1,744 | 1,823 | 1,869 |
| (−) Net Interest | 94 | 97 | 100 | 104 | 109 | 111 |
| (+) D&A | 208 | 225 | 228 | 228 | 231 | 237 |
| EBITDA | 1,884 | 1,946 | 2,010 | 2,076 | 2,163 | 2,217 |
| (−) Tax | 146 | 149 | 155 | 160 | 168 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 222 | 228 | 236 | 245 | 256 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -172 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 21 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,688 | 1,557 | 1,604 | 1,654 | 1,718 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 32,657 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.29% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,637 | 1,421 | 1,377 | 1,336 | 1,306 | 24,071 |
| Enterprise Value | 31,148 | |||||
| Projection Period | 7,077 | 22.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 24,071 | 77.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 14,887 | |||||
| Equity Value | 16,261 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 108M | |||||
| Fair Price | $151 | -8.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.7x | 12.7x | 14.7x | 16.7x | 18.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3% | $110 | $143 | $177 | $210 | $243 |
| 5.3% | $100 | $132 | $164 | $195 | $227 |
| 6.3% | $90 | $121 | $151 | $182 | $212 |
| 7.3% | $82 | $111 | $140 | $169 | $198 |
| 8.3% | $73 | $101 | $128 | $156 | $184 |
Current price: $165.64. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.