Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project EchoStar Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.1% to -1.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 22, DPO 21, DIO 15). At a 8.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $132.58 per share, suggesting SATS is undervalued by 19.6% at the current price of $110.83.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,303 | 2,240 | 2,154 | 2,150 | 2,115 | 2,167 |
| (−) Net Interest | 423 | 412 | 396 | 395 | 388 | 398 |
| (+) D&A | 1,827 | 2,038 | 1,726 | 1,392 | 1,369 | 1,403 |
| EBITDA | 4,553 | 4,690 | 4,276 | 3,937 | 3,872 | 3,968 |
| (−) Tax | 560 | 545 | 524 | 523 | 515 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,530 | 1,488 | 1,431 | 1,428 | 1,405 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -400 | -19 | -27 | -1 | -11 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,862 | 2,676 | 2,347 | 1,987 | 1,963 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 21.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 83,971 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.95% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,755 | 2,386 | 1,939 | 1,520 | 1,391 | 57,273 |
| Enterprise Value | 67,263 | |||||
| Projection Period | 9,990 | 14.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 57,273 | 85.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 29,123 | |||||
| Equity Value | 38,140 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 288M | |||||
| Fair Price | $133 | +19.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 17.2x | 19.2x | 21.2x | 23.2x | 25.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $112 | $133 | $154 | $174 | $195 |
| 7.0% | $103 | $123 | $143 | $162 | $182 |
| 8.0% | $95 | $114 | $133 | $151 | $170 |
| 9.0% | $87 | $105 | $123 | $141 | $159 |
| 10.0% | $79 | $97 | $114 | $131 | $148 |
Current price: $110.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.