Riskified Ltd.

RSKD

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNYSE

$4.83

Market Cap: $760.44M

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 18:13

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.30 – $6.21	$1.84	-62.0%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.36 – $8.07	$2.64	-45.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.85 – $9.15	$6.22	+28.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.64

Market Price

$4.83

Upside / Downside

-45.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -8.4% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) has an intrinsic value of $2.64 per share (range: $0.36 – $8.07).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-8.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	379	9.9%	-4.7%	-18	-18	8	(9)	7	-26	-25
2027	417	10.1%	-1.0%	-4	-4	9	(12)	5	-12	-11
2028	447	7.1%	2.8%	12	10	9	(14)	4	1	1
2029	494	10.7%	6.5%	32	25	10	(18)	7	11	8
2030	548	10.7%	10.2%	56	44	11	(22)	8	26	18
2031	599	9.4%	10.2%	61	48	12	(26)	7	27	17
2032	648	8.2%	10.2%	66	52	14	(31)	7	28	16
2033	693	6.9%	10.2%	71	56	14	(36)	6	28	15
2034	732	5.6%	10.2%	75	59	15	(41)	6	28	14
2035	763	4.3%	10.2%	78	62	16	(46)	4	27	12

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)65

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)481

PV of Terminal Value215

Enterprise Value279

(–) Net Debt-137

Equity Value416

(÷) Shares Outstanding157

Fair Value per Share$2.64

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$0	$2	$4	$6	$8
7.9%	$0	$1	$3	$5	$6
8.9%	$0	$1	$3	$4	$5
9.9%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$5
10.9%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4

Current price: $4.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 14.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.84

Market Price

$4.83

Upside / Downside

-62.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-8.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	379	9.9%	-4.7%	-18	-18	8	(11)	7	-28	-27
2027	417	10.1%	-1.0%	-4	-4	9	(15)	5	-16	-14
2028	447	7.1%	2.8%	12	10	9	(20)	4	-5	-4
2029	494	10.7%	6.5%	32	25	10	(26)	7	3	2
2030	548	10.7%	10.2%	56	44	11	(33)	8	15	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-31

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)269

PV of Terminal Value183

Enterprise Value152

(–) Net Debt-137

Equity Value289

(÷) Shares Outstanding157

Fair Value per Share$1.84

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$0	$1	$3	$4	$6
7.9%	$0	$1	$2	$4	$5
8.9%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
9.9%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4
10.9%	$0	$1	$1	$2	$3

Current price: $4.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 14.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.22

Market Price

$4.83

Upside / Downside

+28.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) has a fair value of $6.22 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Riskified Ltd.RSKD	761	1.8x	1.9x
Ibotta, Inc.IBTA	1,007	2.5x	2.3x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	803	1.8x	4.4x
VtexVTEX	713	2.9x	3.0x
Red Violet, Inc.RDVT	693	7.2x	9.1x
Docebo Inc.DCBO	610	2.2x	2.5x
Digital Turbine, Inc.APPS	484	1.8x	1.3x
Sprout Social, Inc.SPT	409	0.8x	0.8x
Blend Labs, Inc.BLND	350	3.8x	2.9x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.7x
(*) Revenue		345	324
= Enterprise Value		803	881
(-) Net Debt		-137	-137
Equity Value		940	1,018
(/) Outstanding shares		157	157
Fair Price		$6	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.22

+28.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.30 – $6.21

$1.84

-62.0%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.36 – $8.07

$2.64

-45.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.85 – $9.15

$6.22

+28.8%

DCF Analysis

Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.64

Market Price

$4.83

Upside / Downside

-45.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-8.4%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

2.0%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	379	9.9%	-4.7%	-18	-18	8	(9)	7	-26	-25
2027	417	10.1%	-1.0%	-4	-4	9	(12)	5	-12	-11
2028	447	7.1%	2.8%	12	10	9	(14)	4	1	1
2029	494	10.7%	6.5%	32	25	10	(18)	7	11	8
2030	548	10.7%	10.2%	56	44	11	(22)	8	26	18
2031	599	9.4%	10.2%	61	48	12	(26)	7	27	17
2032	648	8.2%	10.2%	66	52	14	(31)	7	28	16
2033	693	6.9%	10.2%	71	56	14	(36)	6	28	15
2034	732	5.6%	10.2%	75	59	15	(41)	6	28	14
2035	763	4.3%	10.2%	78	62	16	(46)	4	27	12

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)65

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)481

PV of Terminal Value215

Enterprise Value279

(–) Net Debt-137

Equity Value416

(÷) Shares Outstanding157

Fair Value per Share$2.64

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$0	$2	$4	$6	$8
7.9%	$0	$1	$3	$5	$6
8.9%	$0	$1	$3	$4	$5
9.9%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$5
10.9%	$0	$1	$2	$3	$4

Current price: $4.83. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 14.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.22

Market Price

$4.83

Upside / Downside

+28.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Riskified Ltd. (RSKD) has a fair value of $6.22 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Riskified Ltd.RSKD	761	1.8x	1.9x
Ibotta, Inc.IBTA	1,007	2.5x	2.3x
OppFi Inc.OPFI	803	1.8x	4.4x
VtexVTEX	713	2.9x	3.0x
Red Violet, Inc.RDVT	693	7.2x	9.1x
Docebo Inc.DCBO	610	2.2x	2.5x
Digital Turbine, Inc.APPS	484	1.8x	1.3x
Sprout Social, Inc.SPT	409	0.8x	0.8x
Blend Labs, Inc.BLND	350	3.8x	2.9x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.7x
(*) Revenue		345	324
= Enterprise Value		803	881
(-) Net Debt		-137	-137
Equity Value		940	1,018
(/) Outstanding shares		157	157
Fair Price		$6	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.22

+28.8%