Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Republic Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.2% to 4.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 48, DPO 45, DIO 3). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $236.72 per share, suggesting RSG is fairly valued by 8.6% at the current price of $218.04.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,743 | 2,877 | 3,019 | 3,189 | 3,324 | 3,407 |
| (−) Net Interest | 547 | 574 | 602 | 636 | 663 | 680 |
| (+) D&A | 1,629 | 1,751 | 1,864 | 1,962 | 2,039 | 2,090 |
| EBITDA | 4,919 | 5,202 | 5,486 | 5,787 | 6,026 | 6,177 |
| (−) Tax | 500 | 525 | 551 | 582 | 606 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,927 | 2,021 | 2,121 | 2,240 | 2,335 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 342 | 42 | 45 | 53 | 43 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,149 | 2,614 | 2,769 | 2,912 | 3,042 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 97,597 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.97% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,059 | 2,298 | 2,234 | 2,156 | 2,067 | 63,530 |
| Enterprise Value | 74,345 | |||||
| Projection Period | 10,815 | 14.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 63,530 | 85.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 520 | |||||
| Equity Value | 73,825 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 312M | |||||
| Fair Price | $237 | +8.6% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.8x | 13.8x | 15.8x | 17.8x | 19.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $202 | $230 | $258 | $286 | $315 |
| 8.0% | $193 | $220 | $247 | $274 | $301 |
| 9.0% | $185 | $211 | $237 | $262 | $288 |
| 10.0% | $178 | $202 | $227 | $251 | $276 |
| 11.0% | $170 | $194 | $217 | $241 | $265 |
Current price: $218.04. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.