AVITA Medical, Inc.

RCEL

HealthcareMedical - DevicesNASDAQ

$4.26

Market Cap: $105.83M

AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.13 – $26.99	$3.53	-9.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.08 – $52.28	$13.54	+247.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$2.31 – $18.33	$10.10	+159.1%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$13.54

Market Price

$4.26

Upside / Downside

+217.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -58.6% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.8%, AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) has an intrinsic value of $13.54 per share (range: $2.08 – $52.28).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-58.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	82	15.1%	-44.2%	-36	-36	2	(4)	-2	-36	-34
2027	119	43.9%	-29.8%	-35	-35	2	(5)	6	-44	-39
2028	168	41.3%	-15.4%	-26	-26	3	(8)	8	-38	-31
2029	411	145.5%	-1.0%	-4	-4	9	(20)	40	-56	-42
2030	498	20.9%	13.3%	66	52	10	(25)	14	24	16
2031	589	18.3%	13.3%	79	62	12	(31)	15	29	18
2032	678	15.2%	13.3%	90	71	14	(37)	15	34	20
2033	761	12.2%	13.3%	101	80	16	(43)	14	40	21
2034	830	9.1%	13.3%	111	87	17	(48)	11	45	22
2035	880	6.1%	13.3%	117	93	18	(53)	8	50	22

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-26

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)884

PV of Terminal Value396

Enterprise Value369

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value377

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$13.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-1	$12	$26	$39	$52
7.8%	$-2	$8	$18	$29	$39
8.8%	$-3	$5	$14	$22	$30
9.8%	$-3	$3	$10	$17	$24
10.8%	$-4	$2	$8	$14	$19

Current price: $4.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$3.53

Market Price

$4.26

Upside / Downside

-17.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-58.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	82	15.1%	-44.2%	-36	-36	2	(4)	-2	-36	-34
2027	119	43.9%	-29.8%	-35	-35	2	(6)	6	-45	-39
2028	168	41.3%	-15.4%	-26	-26	3	(9)	8	-39	-32
2029	411	145.5%	-1.0%	-4	-4	9	(23)	40	-59	-44
2030	498	20.9%	13.3%	66	52	10	(30)	14	19	13

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-136

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)332

PV of Terminal Value227

Enterprise Value90

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value98

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$3.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-6	$-1	$9	$18	$27
7.8%	$-6	$-2	$6	$13	$20
8.8%	$-6	$-2	$4	$9	$15
9.8%	$-6	$-3	$2	$7	$12
10.8%	$-6	$-3	$1	$5	$9

Current price: $4.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$10.10

Market Price

$4.26

Upside / Downside

+137.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) has a fair value of $10.10 based on 7 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
AVITA Medical, Inc.RCEL	119	1.5x	1.3x
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.OVID	347	47.9x	—
Quipt Home Medical Corp.QIPT	162	0.8x	1.0x
Apyx Medical CorporationAPYX	157	3.1x	3.5x
FONAR CorporationFONR	115	0.9x	—
Hyperfine, Inc.HYPR	93	4.3x	4.4x
InspireMD, Inc.NSPR	70	7.0x	9.1x
Xtant Medical Holdings, Inc.XTNT	63	0.6x	0.7x
Industry Median		3.1x	3.5x
(*) Revenue		72	82
= Enterprise Value		223	323
(-) Net Debt		-8	-8
Equity Value		232	331
(/) Outstanding shares		28	28
Fair Price		$8	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.10

+137.2%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.13 – $26.99

$3.53

-9.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.08 – $52.28

$13.54

+247.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$2.31 – $18.33

$10.10

+159.1%

DCF Analysis

AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$13.54

Market Price

$4.26

Upside / Downside

+217.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-58.6%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

4.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.1%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	82	15.1%	-44.2%	-36	-36	2	(4)	-2	-36	-34
2027	119	43.9%	-29.8%	-35	-35	2	(5)	6	-44	-39
2028	168	41.3%	-15.4%	-26	-26	3	(8)	8	-38	-31
2029	411	145.5%	-1.0%	-4	-4	9	(20)	40	-56	-42
2030	498	20.9%	13.3%	66	52	10	(25)	14	24	16
2031	589	18.3%	13.3%	79	62	12	(31)	15	29	18
2032	678	15.2%	13.3%	90	71	14	(37)	15	34	20
2033	761	12.2%	13.3%	101	80	16	(43)	14	40	21
2034	830	9.1%	13.3%	111	87	17	(48)	11	45	22
2035	880	6.1%	13.3%	117	93	18	(53)	8	50	22

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-26

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)884

PV of Terminal Value396

Enterprise Value369

(–) Net Debt-8

Equity Value377

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$13.54

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-1	$12	$26	$39	$52
7.8%	$-2	$8	$18	$29	$39
8.8%	$-3	$5	$14	$22	$30
9.8%	$-3	$3	$10	$17	$24
10.8%	$-4	$2	$8	$14	$19

Current price: $4.26. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$10.10

Market Price

$4.26

Upside / Downside

+137.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL) has a fair value of $10.10 based on 7 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
AVITA Medical, Inc.RCEL	119	1.5x	1.3x
Ovid Therapeutics Inc.OVID	347	47.9x	—
Quipt Home Medical Corp.QIPT	162	0.8x	1.0x
Apyx Medical CorporationAPYX	157	3.1x	3.5x
FONAR CorporationFONR	115	0.9x	—
Hyperfine, Inc.HYPR	93	4.3x	4.4x
InspireMD, Inc.NSPR	70	7.0x	9.1x
Xtant Medical Holdings, Inc.XTNT	63	0.6x	0.7x
Industry Median		3.1x	3.5x
(*) Revenue		72	82
= Enterprise Value		223	323
(-) Net Debt		-8	-8
Equity Value		232	331
(/) Outstanding shares		28	28
Fair Price		$8	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$10.10

+137.2%