Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Insulet Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 22.3% to 11.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 24, DIO 262). At a 7.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (99% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $180.96 per share, suggesting PODD is overvalued by 17.4% at the current price of $219.11.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 293 | 350 | 414 | 488 | 543 | 557 |
| (−) Net Interest | 103 | 123 | 145 | 171 | 191 | 195 |
| (+) D&A | 134 | 164 | 197 | 258 | 323 | 331 |
| EBITDA | 530 | 636 | 756 | 917 | 1,057 | 1,083 |
| (−) Tax | 37 | 44 | 52 | 61 | 68 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 270 | 322 | 382 | 450 | 501 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 377 | 247 | 280 | 320 | 240 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -154 | 23 | 42 | 86 | 248 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 19,183 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.77% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -149 | 20 | 35 | 66 | 177 | 13,194 |
| Enterprise Value | 13,343 | |||||
| Projection Period | 149 | 1.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 13,194 | 98.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 335 | |||||
| Equity Value | 13,008 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 72M | |||||
| Fair Price | $181 | -17.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.7x | 15.7x | 17.7x | 19.7x | 21.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $154 | $177 | $199 | $222 | $245 |
| 6.8% | $146 | $168 | $190 | $212 | $233 |
| 7.8% | $140 | $160 | $181 | $202 | $222 |
| 8.8% | $133 | $153 | $173 | $192 | $212 |
| 9.8% | $127 | $146 | $165 | $183 | $202 |
Current price: $219.11. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.