Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Prologis, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -1.2% to 6.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 354, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 22.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $126.27 per share, suggesting PLD is fairly valued by 2.5% at the current price of $129.52.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 5,051 | 5,358 | 5,731 | 5,936 | 6,293 | 6,450 |
| (−) Net Interest | 696 | 739 | 790 | 819 | 868 | 889 |
| (+) D&A | 210 | 281 | 353 | 547 | 748 | 767 |
| EBITDA | 5,957 | 6,378 | 6,873 | 7,302 | 7,909 | 8,106 |
| (−) Tax | 247 | 262 | 281 | 291 | 308 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 856 | 908 | 971 | 1,006 | 1,066 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -1,178 | -72 | -87 | -48 | -83 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 6,033 | 5,279 | 5,709 | 6,054 | 6,618 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 22.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 184,255 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.24% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 5,826 | 4,754 | 4,794 | 4,740 | 4,832 | 129,931 |
| Enterprise Value | 154,878 | |||||
| Projection Period | 24,947 | 16.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 129,931 | 83.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 33,891 | |||||
| Equity Value | 120,987 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 958M | |||||
| Fair Price | $126 | -2.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 18.7x | 20.7x | 22.7x | 24.7x | 26.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $115 | $128 | $141 | $154 | $167 |
| 6.2% | $108 | $121 | $133 | $146 | $158 |
| 7.2% | $102 | $114 | $126 | $138 | $150 |
| 8.2% | $97 | $108 | $120 | $131 | $142 |
| 9.2% | $91 | $102 | $113 | $124 | $135 |
Current price: $129.52. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.