Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 18.8% plus 2.4% dividend yield, Packaging Corporation of America has a fair value of $203.03 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $10.79. The current PEG ratio is 1.05.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 16.5% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.4% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 18.8% |
| Fair P/E | 18.8x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $10.79 |
| Fair Value | $203.03 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $8.58 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $10.79 | +25.8% | 8 |
| FY2027E | $12.42 | +15.1% | 7 |
| FY2028E | $13.55 | +9.1% | 5 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 16.5%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $841.1M | $8.83 | — |
| FY2022 | $1.0B | $11.02 | +24.8% |
| FY2023 | $765.2M | $8.48 | -23.0% |
| FY2024 | $805.1M | $8.93 | +5.3% |
| FY2025 | $768.9M | $8.58 | -3.9% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -0.7%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.