The Progressive Corporation (PGR) PEG Fair Value
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 2.4% dividend yield, The Progressive Corporation has a fair value of $129.94 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $16.24.
PEG Ratio
PEG ratio unavailable — requires positive earnings and growth data.
Fair Value Calculation
| EPS Growth RateForward | -8.5% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.4% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $16.24 |
| Fair Value | $129.94 |
Growth Analysis
Forward GrowthActive
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $19.23 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $16.24 | -15.5% | 8 |
| FY2027E | $16.11 | -0.8% | 8 |
2Y Forward EPS CAGR: -8.5%
Historical Growth
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $3.4B | $5.66 | — |
| FY2022 | $722.0M | $1.18 | -79.2% |
Methodology
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.