Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 17.9% plus 3.7% dividend yield, PACCAR Inc has a fair value of $101.59 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $5.67. The current PEG ratio is 1.14.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 14.2% |
| Dividend Yield | +3.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 17.9% |
| Fair P/E | 17.9x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $5.67 |
| Fair Value | $101.59 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $4.51 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $5.67 | +25.6% | 9 |
| FY2027E | $6.86 | +21.1% | 9 |
| FY2028E | $7.31 | +6.6% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $7.67 | +4.9% | 3 |
4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.2%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $1.9B | $3.57 | — |
| FY2022 | $3.0B | $5.75 | +61.1% |
| FY2023 | $4.6B | $8.76 | +52.3% |
| FY2024 | $4.2B | $7.90 | -9.8% |
| FY2025 | $2.4B | $4.51 | -42.9% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 6.0%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.