Orion Energy Systems, Inc.

OESX

IndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsNASDAQ

$9.44

Market Cap: $32.24M

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 20, 2026 22:16

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.71 – $72.81	$13.89	+48.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$5.49 – $82.34	$23.62	+151.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$14.19 – $1,122.19	$40.41	+330.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$23.62

Market Price

$9.44

Upside / Downside

+150.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -13.3% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.0%, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) has an intrinsic value of $23.62 per share (range: $5.49 – $82.34).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	72	-9.1%	-8.6%	-6	-6	2	(1)	0	-6	-6
2026	85	16.9%	-3.9%	-3	-3	2	(1)	2	-5	-5
2027	96	13.3%	0.8%	1	1	2	(2)	2	-2	-1
2028	110	14.4%	5.6%	6	6	2	(3)	3	3	2
2029	124	12.6%	10.3%	13	13	3	(4)	3	9	6
2030	138	11.7%	10.3%	14	14	3	(5)	3	9	6
2031	131	-5.1%	10.3%	13	13	3	(6)	-1	12	7
2032	127	-3.1%	10.3%	13	13	3	(6)	-1	10	5
2033	126	-1.0%	10.3%	13	13	3	(7)	-0	9	4
2034	127	1.0%	10.3%	13	13	3	(8)	0	8	3

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)22

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)136

PV of Terminal Value60

Enterprise Value82

(–) Net Debt4

Equity Value78

(÷) Shares Outstanding3

Fair Value per Share$23.62

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
7.0%	$-4	$18	$39	$61	$82
8.0%	$-4	$13	$30	$47	$64
9.0%	$-5	$10	$24	$38	$52
10.0%	$-5	$7	$19	$31	$43
11.0%	$-5	$5	$16	$26	$36

Current price: $9.44. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$13.89

Market Price

$9.44

Upside / Downside

+47.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	72	-9.1%	-8.6%	-6	-6	2	(1)	0	-6	-6
2026	85	16.9%	-3.9%	-3	-3	2	(2)	2	-6	-5
2027	96	13.3%	0.8%	1	1	2	(4)	2	-3	-2
2028	110	14.4%	5.6%	6	6	2	(5)	3	0	0
2029	124	12.6%	10.3%	13	13	3	(7)	3	5	4

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-10

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)89

PV of Terminal Value60

Enterprise Value50

(–) Net Debt4

Equity Value46

(÷) Shares Outstanding3

Fair Value per Share$13.89

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
7.0%	$-9	$2	$25	$49	$73
8.0%	$-9	$-0	$18	$37	$56
9.0%	$-9	$-1	$14	$29	$45
10.0%	$-9	$-2	$11	$24	$36
11.0%	$-9	$-3	$8	$19	$31

Current price: $9.44. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.41

Market Price

$9.44

Upside / Downside

+328.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) has a fair value of $40.41 based on 8 comparable companies in the Electrical Equipment & Parts industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Electrical Equipment & Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Orion Energy Systems, Inc.OESX	31	0.4x	0.4x
Sidus Space, Inc.SIDU	153	62.3x	17.8x
EuroDry Ltd.EDRY	57	2.6x	2.4x
Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation LimitedAPWC	28	0.1x	—
Quest Resource Holding CorporationQRHC	24	0.4x	0.3x
E-Power Inc. Class AEPOW	22	1.1x	—
ParaZero Technologies Ltd.PRZO	15	46.3x	—
Ming Shing Group Holdings LimitedMSW	14	0.6x	—
Armlogi Holding Corp. common stockBTOC	13	0.7x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.9x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		80	85
= Enterprise Value		72	202
(-) Net Debt		4	4
Equity Value		68	197
(/) Outstanding shares		3	3
Fair Price		$21	$60

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.41

+328.3%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.71 – $72.81

$13.89

+48.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$5.49 – $82.34

$23.62

+151.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$14.19 – $1,122.19

$40.41

+330.8%

DCF Analysis

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$23.62

Market Price

$9.44

Upside / Downside

+150.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-13.3%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

9.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.2%

Tax Rate

0.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2025	72	-9.1%	-8.6%	-6	-6	2	(1)	0	-6	-6
2026	85	16.9%	-3.9%	-3	-3	2	(1)	2	-5	-5
2027	96	13.3%	0.8%	1	1	2	(2)	2	-2	-1
2028	110	14.4%	5.6%	6	6	2	(3)	3	3	2
2029	124	12.6%	10.3%	13	13	3	(4)	3	9	6
2030	138	11.7%	10.3%	14	14	3	(5)	3	9	6
2031	131	-5.1%	10.3%	13	13	3	(6)	-1	12	7
2032	127	-3.1%	10.3%	13	13	3	(6)	-1	10	5
2033	126	-1.0%	10.3%	13	13	3	(7)	-0	9	4
2034	127	1.0%	10.3%	13	13	3	(8)	0	8	3

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)22

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)136

PV of Terminal Value60

Enterprise Value82

(–) Net Debt4

Equity Value78

(÷) Shares Outstanding3

Fair Value per Share$23.62

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
7.0%	$-4	$18	$39	$61	$82
8.0%	$-4	$13	$30	$47	$64
9.0%	$-5	$10	$24	$38	$52
10.0%	$-5	$7	$19	$31	$43
11.0%	$-5	$5	$16	$26	$36

Current price: $9.44. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 20.2% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$40.41

Market Price

$9.44

Upside / Downside

+328.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Electrical Equipment & Parts

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Orion Energy Systems, Inc.OESX	31	0.4x	0.4x
Sidus Space, Inc.SIDU	153	62.3x	17.8x
EuroDry Ltd.EDRY	57	2.6x	2.4x
Asia Pacific Wire & Cable Corporation LimitedAPWC	28	0.1x	—
Quest Resource Holding CorporationQRHC	24	0.4x	0.3x
E-Power Inc. Class AEPOW	22	1.1x	—
ParaZero Technologies Ltd.PRZO	15	46.3x	—
Ming Shing Group Holdings LimitedMSW	14	0.6x	—
Armlogi Holding Corp. common stockBTOC	13	0.7x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.9x	1.6x
(*) Revenue		80	85
= Enterprise Value		72	202
(-) Net Debt		4	4
Equity Value		68	197
(/) Outstanding shares		3	3
Fair Price		$21	$60

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$40.41

+328.3%