Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project NXP Semiconductors N.V.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.3% to 2.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 29, DPO 75, DIO 132). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 30.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $495.73 per share, suggesting NXPI is undervalued by 149.5% at the current price of $198.71.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,537 | 3,900 | 4,172 | 4,282 | 4,394 | 4,504 |
| (−) Net Interest | 437 | 482 | 516 | 529 | 543 | 557 |
| (+) D&A | 858 | 857 | 816 | 834 | 914 | 936 |
| EBITDA | 4,832 | 5,239 | 5,505 | 5,645 | 5,851 | 5,997 |
| (−) Tax | 578 | 638 | 682 | 700 | 718 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 928 | 1,024 | 1,095 | 1,124 | 1,153 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -627 | 206 | 155 | 62 | 64 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 3,953 | 3,372 | 3,572 | 3,759 | 3,915 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 30.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 180,209 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.51% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 3,795 | 2,983 | 2,913 | 2,825 | 2,712 | 119,812 |
| Enterprise Value | 135,040 | |||||
| Projection Period | 15,228 | 11.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 119,812 | 88.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 8,955 | |||||
| Equity Value | 126,085 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 254M | |||||
| Fair Price | $496 | +149.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 26.0x | 28.0x | 30.0x | 32.0x | 34.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $476 | $510 | $544 | $579 | $613 |
| 7.5% | $454 | $487 | $519 | $552 | $585 |
| 8.5% | $433 | $464 | $496 | $527 | $558 |
| 9.5% | $413 | $443 | $473 | $503 | $533 |
| 10.5% | $395 | $424 | $452 | $481 | $509 |
Current price: $198.71. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.