Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 14.6% plus 2.3% dividend yield, Northern Trust Corporation has a fair value of $146.64 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $10.05. The current PEG ratio is 0.94.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 12.3% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 14.6% |
| Fair P/E | 14.6x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $10.05 |
| Fair Value | $146.64 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $8.74 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $10.05 | +15.0% | 9 |
| FY2027E | $11.02 | +9.7% | 9 |
| FY2028E | $12.37 | +12.3% | 3 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 12.3%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $1.5B | $7.14 | — |
| FY2022 | $1.3B | $6.14 | -14.0% |
| FY2023 | $1.1B | $5.08 | -17.3% |
| FY2024 | $2.0B | $9.77 | +92.3% |
| FY2025 | $1.7B | $8.74 | -10.5% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 5.2%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.