NeuroPace, Inc.

NPCE

HealthcareMedical - DevicesNASDAQ

$18.35

Market Cap: $622.99M

NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 21:56

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.24 – $8.87	$0.24	-98.7%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.18 – $19.27	$4.53	-75.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$7.39 – $17.97	$8.91	-51.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.53

Market Price

$18.35

Upside / Downside

-75.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -16.3% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.8%, NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) has an intrinsic value of $4.53 per share (range: $0.18 – $19.27).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-16.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	99	-1.1%	-10.4%	-10	-10	3	(1)	1	-10	-9
2027	123	24.5%	-4.5%	-6	-6	3	(2)	7	-12	-10
2028	154	24.8%	1.5%	2	2	4	(3)	9	-7	-6
2029	185	20.3%	7.4%	14	11	5	(5)	10	1	1
2030	213	15.5%	13.3%	28	22	6	(7)	9	13	9
2031	254	18.8%	13.3%	34	27	7	(10)	12	12	7
2032	293	15.6%	13.3%	39	31	8	(13)	12	14	8
2033	330	12.5%	13.3%	44	35	9	(16)	11	16	9
2034	361	9.3%	13.3%	48	38	10	(20)	9	19	9
2035	383	6.2%	13.3%	51	40	11	(23)	7	21	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)27

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)378

PV of Terminal Value170

Enterprise Value197

(–) Net Debt49

Equity Value148

(÷) Shares Outstanding33

Fair Value per Share$4.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-1	$4	$9	$14	$19
7.8%	$-2	$2	$6	$10	$14
8.8%	$-2	$1	$5	$8	$11
9.8%	$-2	$1	$3	$6	$9
10.8%	$-2	$0	$2	$5	$7

Current price: $18.35. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 30.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.24

Market Price

$18.35

Upside / Downside

-98.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-16.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	99	-1.1%	-10.4%	-10	-10	3	(2)	1	-10	-10
2027	123	24.5%	-4.5%	-6	-6	3	(3)	7	-13	-11
2028	154	24.8%	1.5%	2	2	4	(6)	9	-9	-8
2029	185	20.3%	7.4%	14	11	5	(9)	10	-3	-2
2030	213	15.5%	13.3%	28	22	6	(13)	9	7	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-26

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)121

PV of Terminal Value83

Enterprise Value57

(–) Net Debt49

Equity Value8

(÷) Shares Outstanding33

Fair Value per Share$0.24

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-3	$-2	$2	$5	$9
7.8%	$-3	$-2	$1	$4	$6
8.8%	$-3	$-2	$0	$2	$5
9.8%	$-3	$-2	$-0	$2	$3
10.8%	$-3	$-2	$-1	$1	$3

Current price: $18.35. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 30.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$8.91

Market Price

$18.35

Upside / Downside

-51.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) has a fair value of $8.91 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
NeuroPace, Inc.NPCE	600	6.5x	6.6x
BrainsWay Ltd.BWAY	673	11.6x	15.1x
Cerus CorporationCERS	523	2.9x	3.0x
Delcath Systems, Inc.DCTH	399	4.2x	3.4x
908 Devices Inc.MASS	309	3.8x	3.9x
Sight Sciences, Inc.SGHT	286	3.0x	2.9x
RxSight, Inc.RXST	239	1.7x	1.6x
Senseonics Holdings, Inc.SENS	224	6.4x	3.7x
CVRx, Inc.CVRX	180	2.7x	2.7x
Industry Median		3.4x	3.2x
(*) Revenue		100	99
= Enterprise Value		341	341
(-) Net Debt		49	49
Equity Value		292	292
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$9	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$8.91

-51.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.24 – $8.87

$0.24

-98.7%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.18 – $19.27

$4.53

-75.3%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$7.39 – $17.97

$8.91

-51.4%

DCF Analysis

NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.53

Market Price

$18.35

Upside / Downside

-75.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-16.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

8.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.6%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

2.8%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	99	-1.1%	-10.4%	-10	-10	3	(1)	1	-10	-9
2027	123	24.5%	-4.5%	-6	-6	3	(2)	7	-12	-10
2028	154	24.8%	1.5%	2	2	4	(3)	9	-7	-6
2029	185	20.3%	7.4%	14	11	5	(5)	10	1	1
2030	213	15.5%	13.3%	28	22	6	(7)	9	13	9
2031	254	18.8%	13.3%	34	27	7	(10)	12	12	7
2032	293	15.6%	13.3%	39	31	8	(13)	12	14	8
2033	330	12.5%	13.3%	44	35	9	(16)	11	16	9
2034	361	9.3%	13.3%	48	38	10	(20)	9	19	9
2035	383	6.2%	13.3%	51	40	11	(23)	7	21	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)27

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)378

PV of Terminal Value170

Enterprise Value197

(–) Net Debt49

Equity Value148

(÷) Shares Outstanding33

Fair Value per Share$4.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
6.8%	$-1	$4	$9	$14	$19
7.8%	$-2	$2	$6	$10	$14
8.8%	$-2	$1	$5	$8	$11
9.8%	$-2	$1	$3	$6	$9
10.8%	$-2	$0	$2	$5	$7

Current price: $18.35. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 30.8% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$8.91

Market Price

$18.35

Upside / Downside

-51.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), NeuroPace, Inc. (NPCE) has a fair value of $8.91 based on 8 comparable companies in the Medical - Devices industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Medical - Devices

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
NeuroPace, Inc.NPCE	600	6.5x	6.6x
BrainsWay Ltd.BWAY	673	11.6x	15.1x
Cerus CorporationCERS	523	2.9x	3.0x
Delcath Systems, Inc.DCTH	399	4.2x	3.4x
908 Devices Inc.MASS	309	3.8x	3.9x
Sight Sciences, Inc.SGHT	286	3.0x	2.9x
RxSight, Inc.RXST	239	1.7x	1.6x
Senseonics Holdings, Inc.SENS	224	6.4x	3.7x
CVRx, Inc.CVRX	180	2.7x	2.7x
Industry Median		3.4x	3.2x
(*) Revenue		100	99
= Enterprise Value		341	341
(-) Net Debt		49	49
Equity Value		292	292
(/) Outstanding shares		33	33
Fair Price		$9	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$8.91

-51.4%