Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 17.5% plus 3.0% dividend yield, NIKE, Inc. has a fair value of $27.13 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.55. The current PEG ratio is 1.92.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 14.5% |
| Dividend Yield | +3.0% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 17.5% |
| Fair P/E | 17.5x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.55 |
| Fair Value | $27.13 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $2.16 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.55 | -28.2% | 27 |
| FY2027E | $2.29 | +47.3% | 28 |
| FY2028E | $2.78 | +21.8% | 23 |
| FY2029E | $2.85 | +2.2% | 11 |
| FY2030E | $4.25 | +49.3% | 18 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.5%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $5.7B | $3.56 | — |
| FY2022 | $6.0B | $3.75 | +5.3% |
| FY2023 | $5.1B | $3.23 | -13.9% |
| FY2024 | $5.7B | $3.73 | +15.5% |
| FY2025 | $3.2B | $2.16 | -42.1% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -11.7%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.