Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Newmont Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 28.9% to 2.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 20, DPO 26, DIO 68). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (96% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $143.47 per share, suggesting NEM is undervalued by 43.2% at the current price of $100.18.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 5,947 | 6,177 | 6,166 | 6,416 | 6,568 | 6,732 |
| (−) Net Interest | 548 | 570 | 569 | 592 | 606 | 621 |
| (+) D&A | 2,577 | 3,228 | 3,821 | 4,305 | 4,684 | 4,801 |
| EBITDA | 9,073 | 9,974 | 10,556 | 11,313 | 11,857 | 12,154 |
| (−) Tax | 2,974 | 3,088 | 3,083 | 3,208 | 3,284 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 4,907 | 5,096 | 5,087 | 5,294 | 5,419 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 2,602 | 153 | -7 | 168 | 101 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -1,409 | 1,637 | 2,393 | 2,644 | 3,053 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 18.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 220,223 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.61% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -1,352 | 1,446 | 1,946 | 1,980 | 2,105 | 145,699 |
| Enterprise Value | 151,825 | |||||
| Projection Period | 6,126 | 4.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 145,699 | 96.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (7,173) | |||||
| Equity Value | 158,998 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1108M | |||||
| Fair Price | $143 | +43.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 14.1x | 16.1x | 18.1x | 20.1x | 22.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $125 | $141 | $157 | $173 | $189 |
| 7.6% | $119 | $135 | $150 | $165 | $180 |
| 8.6% | $114 | $129 | $143 | $158 | $172 |
| 9.6% | $110 | $124 | $137 | $151 | $165 |
| 10.6% | $105 | $118 | $132 | $145 | $158 |
Current price: $100.18. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.