Noodles & Company

NDLS

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$12.73

Market Cap: $75.01M

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 13, 2026 22:23

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$7.63 – $1,323.90	$90.77	+981.9%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$8.60 – $1,265.48	$88.25	+951.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$4.74 – $181.02	$19.50	+132.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$88.25

Market Price

$12.73

Upside / Downside

+593.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1.0% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 5.6%, Noodles & Company (NDLS) has an intrinsic value of $88.25 per share (range: $8.60 – $1,265.48).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

5.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

1.9%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	478	-3.5%	0.7%	3	3	25	(29)	10	-11	-10
2027	477	-0.1%	2.5%	12	12	25	(30)	0	7	6
2028	482	1.0%	4.2%	20	20	25	(31)	-0	14	12
2029	487	1.0%	6.0%	29	29	25	(32)	-0	22	18
2030	492	1.0%	7.7%	38	37	26	(34)	-0	29	23
2031	499	1.4%	7.7%	38	38	26	(35)	-0	29	21
2032	507	1.7%	7.7%	39	38	26	(37)	-0	28	20
2033	518	2.0%	7.7%	40	39	27	(38)	-0	28	18
2034	530	2.3%	7.7%	41	40	27	(40)	-0	27	17
2035	544	2.7%	7.7%	42	41	28	(42)	-0	27	16

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)142

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,077

PV of Terminal Value642

Enterprise Value784

(–) Net Debt268

Equity Value516

(÷) Shares Outstanding6

Fair Value per Share$88.25

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
3.6%	$-52	$200	$555	$910	$1265
4.6%	$-51	$44	$175	$306	$437
5.6%	$-51	$9	$88	$168	$248
6.6%	$-51	$-7	$50	$106	$163
7.6%	$-51	$-16	$28	$72	$116

Current price: $12.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -0.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$90.77

Market Price

$12.73

Upside / Downside

+613.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

5.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

1.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	478	-3.5%	0.7%	3	3	25	(30)	10	-11	-11
2027	477	-0.1%	2.5%	12	12	25	(32)	0	5	4
2028	482	1.0%	4.2%	20	20	25	(34)	-0	11	10
2029	487	1.0%	6.0%	29	29	25	(36)	-0	18	15
2030	492	1.0%	7.7%	38	37	26	(38)	-0	25	19

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)37

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)973

PV of Terminal Value762

Enterprise Value798

(–) Net Debt268

Equity Value531

(÷) Shares Outstanding6

Fair Value per Share$90.77

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
3.6%	$-52	$208	$580	$952	$1324
4.6%	$-52	$45	$182	$319	$456
5.6%	$-52	$8	$91	$174	$257
6.6%	$-52	$-9	$50	$110	$169
7.6%	$-52	$-18	$28	$73	$119

Current price: $12.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -0.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$20.36

Market Price

$12.73

Upside / Downside

+59.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Noodles & Company (NDLS) has a fair value of $20.36 based on 6 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Noodles & CompanyNDLS	74	0.7x	0.7x
MKDWELL Tech Inc.MKDW	40	24.0x	—
RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc.RAVE	35	2.7x	1.2x
Crown Crafts, Inc.CRWS	28	0.7x	0.8x
Ark Restaurants Corp.ARKR	24	0.6x	1.4x
The Brand House Collective, Inc.TBHC	21	0.5x	0.4x
Leslie's, Inc.LESL	13	0.8x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.7x	0.8x
(*) Revenue		495	499
= Enterprise Value		360	403
(-) Net Debt		263	263
Equity Value		97	141
(/) Outstanding shares		6	6
Fair Price		$17	$24

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$20.36

+59.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$7.63 – $1,323.90

$90.77

+981.9%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$8.60 – $1,265.48

$88.25

+951.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$4.74 – $181.02

$19.50

+132.4%

DCF Analysis

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$88.25

Market Price

$12.73

Upside / Downside

+593.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

5.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

1.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	478	-3.5%	0.7%	3	3	25	(29)	10	-11	-10
2027	477	-0.1%	2.5%	12	12	25	(30)	0	7	6
2028	482	1.0%	4.2%	20	20	25	(31)	-0	14	12
2029	487	1.0%	6.0%	29	29	25	(32)	-0	22	18
2030	492	1.0%	7.7%	38	37	26	(34)	-0	29	23
2031	499	1.4%	7.7%	38	38	26	(35)	-0	29	21
2032	507	1.7%	7.7%	39	38	26	(37)	-0	28	20
2033	518	2.0%	7.7%	40	39	27	(38)	-0	28	18
2034	530	2.3%	7.7%	41	40	27	(40)	-0	27	17
2035	544	2.7%	7.7%	42	41	28	(42)	-0	27	16

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)142

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,077

PV of Terminal Value642

Enterprise Value784

(–) Net Debt268

Equity Value516

(÷) Shares Outstanding6

Fair Value per Share$88.25

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
3.6%	$-52	$200	$555	$910	$1265
4.6%	$-51	$44	$175	$306	$437
5.6%	$-51	$9	$88	$168	$248
6.6%	$-51	$-7	$50	$106	$163
7.6%	$-51	$-16	$28	$72	$116

Current price: $12.73. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -0.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$20.36

Market Price

$12.73

Upside / Downside

+59.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Noodles & Company (NDLS) has a fair value of $20.36 based on 6 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Noodles & CompanyNDLS	74	0.7x	0.7x
MKDWELL Tech Inc.MKDW	40	24.0x	—
RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc.RAVE	35	2.7x	1.2x
Crown Crafts, Inc.CRWS	28	0.7x	0.8x
Ark Restaurants Corp.ARKR	24	0.6x	1.4x
The Brand House Collective, Inc.TBHC	21	0.5x	0.4x
Leslie's, Inc.LESL	13	0.8x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.7x	0.8x
(*) Revenue		495	499
= Enterprise Value		360	403
(-) Net Debt		263	263
Equity Value		97	141
(/) Outstanding shares		6	6
Fair Price		$17	$24

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$20.36

+59.9%