Noodles & Company

NDLS

Consumer CyclicalRestaurantsNASDAQ

$12.67

Market Cap: $74.60M

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 21:49

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$6.74 – $1,042.65	$85.46	+574.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$7.70 – $996.73	$83.13	+556.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$6.00 – $229.85	$22.15	+74.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$83.13

Market Price

$12.67

Upside / Downside

+556.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -1.0% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 5.8%, Noodles & Company (NDLS) has an intrinsic value of $83.13 per share (range: $7.70 – $996.73).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

5.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

1.9%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	483	-2.4%	0.7%	3	3	25	(29)	2	-2	-2
2027	480	-0.6%	2.5%	12	12	25	(30)	0	7	6
2028	485	1.0%	4.2%	20	20	25	(31)	-0	14	12
2029	490	1.0%	6.0%	29	29	25	(32)	-0	22	18
2030	495	1.0%	7.7%	38	38	26	(34)	-0	29	23
2031	502	1.4%	7.7%	39	38	26	(35)	-0	29	21
2032	511	1.7%	7.7%	39	39	26	(37)	-0	28	20
2033	521	2.0%	7.7%	40	39	27	(39)	-0	28	18
2034	533	2.3%	7.7%	41	40	28	(40)	-0	28	17
2035	547	2.7%	7.7%	42	41	28	(43)	-0	27	16

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)149

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,020

PV of Terminal Value600

Enterprise Value749

(–) Net Debt263

Equity Value486

(÷) Shares Outstanding6

Fair Value per Share$83.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
3.8%	$-49	$151	$433	$715	$997
4.8%	$-49	$38	$158	$278	$398
5.8%	$-49	$8	$83	$159	$234
6.8%	$-49	$-7	$48	$103	$157
7.8%	$-49	$-15	$28	$70	$113

Current price: $12.67. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -0.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$85.46

Market Price

$12.67

Upside / Downside

+574.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

5.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

1.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	483	-2.4%	0.7%	3	3	25	(30)	2	-3	-3
2027	480	-0.6%	2.5%	12	12	25	(32)	0	5	4
2028	485	1.0%	4.2%	20	20	25	(34)	-0	11	10
2029	490	1.0%	6.0%	29	29	25	(36)	-0	18	15
2030	495	1.0%	7.7%	38	38	26	(39)	-0	25	19

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)45

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)923

PV of Terminal Value718

Enterprise Value762

(–) Net Debt263

Equity Value500

(÷) Shares Outstanding6

Fair Value per Share$85.46

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
3.8%	$-50	$157	$452	$747	$1043
4.8%	$-50	$39	$164	$289	$415
5.8%	$-50	$7	$85	$164	$243
6.8%	$-50	$-8	$49	$106	$163
7.8%	$-49	$-17	$28	$72	$117

Current price: $12.67. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -0.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$22.15

Market Price

$12.67

Upside / Downside

+74.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Noodles & Company (NDLS) has a fair value of $22.15 based on 6 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Noodles & CompanyNDLS	74	0.7x	0.7x
RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc.RAVE	41	3.2x	1.4x
MKDWELL Tech Inc.MKDW	35	21.3x	—
Crown Crafts, Inc.CRWS	30	0.7x	0.8x
Ark Restaurants Corp.ARKR	25	0.6x	1.4x
The Brand House Collective, Inc.TBHC	21	0.5x	0.4x
Leslie's, Inc.LESL	15	0.8x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.7x	0.8x
(*) Revenue		495	499
= Enterprise Value		367	418
(-) Net Debt		263	263
Equity Value		104	155
(/) Outstanding shares		6	6
Fair Price		$18	$27

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$22.15

+74.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$6.74 – $1,042.65

$85.46

+574.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$7.70 – $996.73

$83.13

+556.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$6.00 – $229.85

$22.15

+74.8%

DCF Analysis

Noodles & Company (NDLS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$83.13

Market Price

$12.67

Upside / Downside

+556.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-1.0%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

5.8%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.9%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

1.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	483	-2.4%	0.7%	3	3	25	(29)	2	-2	-2
2027	480	-0.6%	2.5%	12	12	25	(30)	0	7	6
2028	485	1.0%	4.2%	20	20	25	(31)	-0	14	12
2029	490	1.0%	6.0%	29	29	25	(32)	-0	22	18
2030	495	1.0%	7.7%	38	38	26	(34)	-0	29	23
2031	502	1.4%	7.7%	39	38	26	(35)	-0	29	21
2032	511	1.7%	7.7%	39	39	26	(37)	-0	28	20
2033	521	2.0%	7.7%	40	39	27	(39)	-0	28	18
2034	533	2.3%	7.7%	41	40	28	(40)	-0	28	17
2035	547	2.7%	7.7%	42	41	28	(43)	-0	27	16

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)149

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,020

PV of Terminal Value600

Enterprise Value749

(–) Net Debt263

Equity Value486

(÷) Shares Outstanding6

Fair Value per Share$83.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
3.8%	$-49	$151	$433	$715	$997
4.8%	$-49	$38	$158	$278	$398
5.8%	$-49	$8	$83	$159	$234
6.8%	$-49	$-7	$48	$103	$157
7.8%	$-49	$-15	$28	$70	$113

Current price: $12.67. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -0.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$22.15

Market Price

$12.67

Upside / Downside

+74.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Noodles & Company (NDLS) has a fair value of $22.15 based on 6 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Restaurants

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Noodles & CompanyNDLS	74	0.7x	0.7x
RAVE Restaurant Group, Inc.RAVE	41	3.2x	1.4x
MKDWELL Tech Inc.MKDW	35	21.3x	—
Crown Crafts, Inc.CRWS	30	0.7x	0.8x
Ark Restaurants Corp.ARKR	25	0.6x	1.4x
The Brand House Collective, Inc.TBHC	21	0.5x	0.4x
Leslie's, Inc.LESL	15	0.8x	0.7x
Industry Median		0.7x	0.8x
(*) Revenue		495	499
= Enterprise Value		367	418
(-) Net Debt		263	263
Equity Value		104	155
(/) Outstanding shares		6	6
Fair Price		$18	$27

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$22.15

+74.8%