Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Nasdaq, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -30.5% to 2.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 23, DIO 60). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.3x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $60.64 per share, suggesting NDAQ is overvalued by 28.0% at the current price of $84.20.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,021 | 2,187 | 2,362 | 2,501 | 2,559 | 2,623 |
| (−) Net Interest | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 |
| (+) D&A | 189 | 188 | 192 | 197 | 195 | 200 |
| EBITDA | 2,222 | 2,388 | 2,568 | 2,714 | 2,770 | 2,839 |
| (−) Tax | 447 | 484 | 523 | 554 | 567 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 158 | 171 | 185 | 196 | 200 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 382 | 86 | 90 | 72 | 30 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,235 | 1,647 | 1,770 | 1,892 | 1,973 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 18.3x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 51,987 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.06% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,194 | 1,487 | 1,492 | 1,490 | 1,452 | 36,964 |
| Enterprise Value | 44,078 | |||||
| Projection Period | 7,115 | 16.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 36,964 | 83.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 9,114 | |||||
| Equity Value | 34,964 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 577M | |||||
| Fair Price | $61 | -28.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 14.3x | 16.3x | 18.3x | 20.3x | 22.3x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1% | $52 | $60 | $68 | $75 | $83 |
| 6.1% | $49 | $57 | $64 | $71 | $79 |
| 7.1% | $47 | $54 | $61 | $68 | $75 |
| 8.1% | $44 | $51 | $57 | $64 | $71 |
| 9.1% | $42 | $48 | $54 | $61 | $67 |
Current price: $84.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.