The Marzetti Company

MZTI

Consumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNASDAQ

$112.29

Market Cap: $3.08B

The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 13, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$77.75 – $310.14	$119.83	-16.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$91.28 – $355.95	$139.65	-2.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$71.52 – $161.13	$112.51	-21.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$83.45 – $188.06	$127.79	-10.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$66.31 – $153.63	$108.14	-24.6%
EV/EBITDA	$82.15 – $110.50	$104.98	-26.8%
EV/Revenue	$60.75 – $74.94	$68.72	-52.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$89.45 – $89.45	$89.45	-37.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$55.50 – $82.72	$66.27	-53.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$59.90 – $177.45	$93.21	-35.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$119.83

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+6.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Marzetti Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 31, DIO 42). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $119.83 per share, suggesting MZTI is fairly valued by 6.7% at the current price of $112.29.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	203
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	47
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	96
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	346

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	45
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	119
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	13
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	138	158	154	152	165	169

Terminal Value						3,599
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	2,543

Enterprise Value	3,188
Projection Period	645	20.2%
Terminal Value	2,543	79.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)

Equity Value	3,294
(/) Outstanding Shares	27

Fair Price	$119.83

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$158	$178	$206	$246	$310
6.2%	$125	$136	$151	$170	$197
7.2%	$104	$111	$120	$131	$145
8.2%	$89	$94	$100	$107	$115
9.2%	$78	$81	$85	$90	$96

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$139.65

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+24.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Marzetti Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 31, DIO 42). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (67% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $139.65 per share, suggesting MZTI is undervalued by 24.4% at the current price of $112.29.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	211	222	233	243	252	258
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	49	51	54	56	58	60
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	105	110	116	123	130	133
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	364	384	403	423	440	451

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	46	49	51	54	56	57
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	124	131	137	143	148	152
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	12	12	11	10	9	9
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	138	158	154	152	165	182	193	204	216	228	233

Terminal Value											4,973
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	124	123	121	120	118	2,483

Enterprise Value	3,733
Projection Period	1,250	33.5%
Terminal Value	2,483	66.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)

Equity Value	3,839
(/) Outstanding Shares	27

Fair Price	$139.65

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$192	$214	$244	$287	$356
6.2%	$151	$162	$178	$197	$224
7.2%	$124	$131	$140	$150	$164
8.2%	$105	$110	$115	$122	$130
9.2%	$91	$94	$98	$102	$107

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$112.55

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+0.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Marzetti Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 31, DIO 42). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $112.51 per share, suggesting MZTI is fairly valued by 0.2% at the current price of $112.29.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.58x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	203
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	47
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	96
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	346

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	—
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	—
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	138	158	154	152	165	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						3,316
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	2,343

Enterprise Value	2,988
Projection Period	645	21.6%
Terminal Value	2,343	78.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)
Equity Value	3,094
(÷) Outstanding Shares	27M
Fair Price	$113	+0.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.2%	$83	$102	$122	$142	$161
6.2%	$80	$98	$117	$136	$154
7.2%	$77	$95	$113	$130	$148
8.2%	$74	$91	$108	$125	$142
9.2%	$72	$88	$104	$120	$136

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$127.83

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+13.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Marzetti Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 31, DIO 42). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (63% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $127.79 per share, suggesting MZTI is fairly valued by 13.8% at the current price of $112.29.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.58x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	211	222	233	243	252	258
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	49	51	54	56	58	60
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	105	110	116	123	130	133
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	364	384	403	423	440	451

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	46	49	51	54	56	—
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	124	131	137	143	148	—
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	12	12	11	10	9	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	138	158	154	152	165	182	193	204	216	228	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											4,322
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	124	123	121	120	118	2,158

Enterprise Value	3,408
Projection Period	1,250	36.7%
Terminal Value	2,158	63.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)
Equity Value	3,514
(÷) Outstanding Shares	27M
Fair Price	$128	+13.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.2%	$109	$129	$148	$168	$188
6.2%	$102	$120	$138	$156	$174
7.2%	$95	$111	$128	$144	$161
8.2%	$89	$104	$119	$134	$149
9.2%	$83	$97	$111	$124	$138

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$108.14

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-3.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), The Marzetti Company (MZTI) has a fair value of $108.14 based on 7 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

P/E Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
The Marzetti CompanyMZTI	3,087	18.5x	17.9x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,208	18.1x	16.9x
BellRing Brands, Inc.BRBR	1,789	9.0x	7.9x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,563	24.5x	15.9x
Seneca Foods CorporationSENEA	1,131	27.9x	67.1x
The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL	1,005	10.9x	6.5x
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.JBSS	944	16.0x	16.9x
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.NATR	468	25.2x	40.5x
Industry Median		18.1x	16.9x
(*) Profit after tax		167	173
Equity Value		3,033	2,912
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$110	$106

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$108.14

-3.7%

Fair Value

$104.98

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-6.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), The Marzetti Company (MZTI) has a fair value of $104.98 based on 7 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
The Marzetti CompanyMZTI	3,087	10.4x	10.5x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,208	9.6x	9.9x
BellRing Brands, Inc.BRBR	1,789	7.5x	7.2x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,563	10.1x	10.1x
Seneca Foods CorporationSENEA	1,131	11.0x	4.8x
The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL	1,005	6.6x	7.0x
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.JBSS	944	9.3x	11.0x
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.NATR	468	10.2x	11.0x
Industry Median		9.6x	9.9x
(*) EBITDA		288	283
= Enterprise Value		2,754	2,806
(-) Net Debt		-106	-106
Equity Value		2,860	2,912
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$104	$106

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$104.98

-6.5%

Fair Value

$68.72

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-38.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The Marzetti Company (MZTI) has a fair value of $68.72 based on 9 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Marzetti CompanyMZTI	3,087	1.6x	1.6x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,208	1.6x	1.6x
BellRing Brands, Inc.BRBR	1,789	1.2x	1.2x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,563	1.0x	1.0x
Seneca Foods CorporationSENEA	1,131	0.9x	0.4x
The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL	1,005	0.8x	0.9x
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.JBSS	944	0.9x	1.1x
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.NATR	468	0.8x	0.9x
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.HAIN	82	0.5x	0.6x
Bridgford Foods CorporationBRID	68	0.3x	—
Industry Median		0.9x	1.0x
(*) Revenue		1,909	1,878
= Enterprise Value		1,769	1,797
(-) Net Debt		-106	-106
Equity Value		1,875	1,903
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$68	$69

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$68.72

-38.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$89.45

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-20.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 12.8% plus 2.6% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $89.45 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $7.01. The current PEG ratio is 1.60.

PEG Ratio

1.60Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 20.4 ÷ (10.1% + 2.6%) = 1.60

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	10.1%
Dividend Yield	+2.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	12.8%
Fair P/E	12.8x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$7.01
Fair Value	$89.45

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$6.07	—	—
FY2026E	$7.01	+15.5%	4
FY2027E	$7.36	+5.0%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$142.3M	$5.16	—
FY2022	$89.6M	$3.25	-37.0%
FY2023	$111.3M	$4.04	+24.3%
FY2024	$158.6M	$5.76	+42.6%
FY2025	$167.3M	$6.07	+5.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 4.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$66.27

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-41.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 7.2% and normalized earnings of $123.4M, the company has a fair value of $66.27 per share. The EPV range is $55.50 – $82.72 based on WACC sensitivity (5.7% – 8.7%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	123	123	123
(/) WACC	8.7%	7.2%	5.7%
Enterprise Value	1,420	1,716	2,168
(-) Net debt	-106	-106	-106
Equity Value	1,526	1,822	2,274
(/) Outstanding shares	27	27	27
Fair Price	$55.50	$66.27	$82.72

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$93.21

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-17.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.2% and projected dividend growth of 5.5%, the fair value is $93.21 per share. The DDM range is $59.90 – $177.45 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.77

Dividend Yield

2.63%

Payout Ratio

61.8%

Dividend Coverage

1.62x

FCF Payout Ratio50.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)6.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.77	61.8%	+5.6%
2024	$3.57	61.7%	+6.1%
2023	$3.36	83.0%	+6.4%
2022	$3.16	96.8%	+7.0%
2021	$2.95	57.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.97	5.5%	0.9326	$3.71
2027	$4.19	5.5%	0.8697	$3.65
2028	$4.42	5.5%	0.8110	$3.59
2029	$4.67	5.5%	0.7563	$3.53
2030	$4.92	5.5%	0.7053	$3.47
Terminal Value	$5.05 DPS	2.5%		$75.27

PV of Projected Dividends$17.94

PV of Terminal Value$75.27

Fair Value per Share$93.21

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.5%	4.5%	5.5%	6.5%	7.5%
5.2%	$148	$155	$162	$170	$177
6.2%	$108	$113	$118	$124	$129
7.2%	$85	$89	$93	$97	$102
8.2%	$70	$74	$77	$80	$84
9.2%	$60	$63	$65	$68	$71

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

The Marzetti Company (MZTI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 13, 2026 22:22

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$77.75 – $310.14	$119.83	-16.4%
Growth Exit 10Y	$91.28 – $355.95	$139.65	-2.6%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$71.52 – $161.13	$112.51	-21.5%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$83.45 – $188.06	$127.79	-10.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$66.31 – $153.63	$108.14	-24.6%
EV/EBITDA	$82.15 – $110.50	$104.98	-26.8%
EV/Revenue	$60.75 – $74.94	$68.72	-52.1%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$89.45 – $89.45	$89.45	-37.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$55.50 – $82.72	$66.27	-53.8%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$59.90 – $177.45	$93.21	-35.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$119.83

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+6.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	203
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	47
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	96
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	346

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	45
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	119
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	13
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	138	158	154	152	165	169

Terminal Value						3,599
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	2,543

Enterprise Value	3,188
Projection Period	645	20.2%
Terminal Value	2,543	79.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)

Equity Value	3,294
(/) Outstanding Shares	27

Fair Price	$119.83

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$158	$178	$206	$246	$310
6.2%	$125	$136	$151	$170	$197
7.2%	$104	$111	$120	$131	$145
8.2%	$89	$94	$100	$107	$115
9.2%	$78	$81	$85	$90	$96

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$139.65

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+24.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	211	222	233	243	252	258
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	49	51	54	56	58	60
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	105	110	116	123	130	133
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	364	384	403	423	440	451

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	46	49	51	54	56	57
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	124	131	137	143	148	152
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	12	12	11	10	9	9
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	138	158	154	152	165	182	193	204	216	228	233

Terminal Value											4,973
WACC / Discount Rate	7.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	124	123	121	120	118	2,483

Enterprise Value	3,733
Projection Period	1,250	33.5%
Terminal Value	2,483	66.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)

Equity Value	3,839
(/) Outstanding Shares	27

Fair Price	$139.65

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
5.2%	$192	$214	$244	$287	$356
6.2%	$151	$162	$178	$197	$224
7.2%	$124	$131	$140	$150	$164
8.2%	$105	$110	$115	$122	$130
9.2%	$91	$94	$98	$102	$107

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$112.55

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+0.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Marzetti Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 6.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 31, DIO 42). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $112.51 per share, suggesting MZTI is fairly valued by 0.2% at the current price of $112.29.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.58x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	203
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	47
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	96
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	346

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	—
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	—
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	138	158	154	152	165	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						9.6x
Terminal Value						3,316
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	2,343

Enterprise Value	2,988
Projection Period	645	21.6%
Terminal Value	2,343	78.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)
Equity Value	3,094
(÷) Outstanding Shares	27M
Fair Price	$113	+0.2%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.2%	$83	$102	$122	$142	$161
6.2%	$80	$98	$117	$136	$154
7.2%	$77	$95	$113	$130	$148
8.2%	$74	$91	$108	$125	$142
9.2%	$72	$88	$104	$120	$136

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$127.83

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

+13.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Marzetti Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.2% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 23, DPO 31, DIO 42). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (63% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.6x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $127.79 per share, suggesting MZTI is fairly valued by 13.8% at the current price of $112.29.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

7.19%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

9.58x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	167	171	174	186	198	211	222	233	243	252	258
(−) Net Interest	39	40	40	43	46	49	51	54	56	58	60
(+) D&A	87	89	83	85	94	105	110	116	123	130	133
EBITDA	293	300	297	314	338	364	384	403	423	440	451

(−) Tax	37	38	38	41	44	46	49	51	54	56	—
(−) CapEx	98	101	102	109	117	124	131	137	143	148	—
(−) ΔWC	19	4	3	12	13	12	12	11	10	9	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	138	158	154	152	165	182	193	204	216	228	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											9.6x
Terminal Value											4,322
WACC / Discount Rate	7.19%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	134	142	129	119	121	124	123	121	120	118	2,158

Enterprise Value	3,408
Projection Period	1,250	36.7%
Terminal Value	2,158	63.3%

(−) Current Net Debt	(106)
Equity Value	3,514
(÷) Outstanding Shares	27M
Fair Price	$128	+13.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	5.6x	7.6x	9.6x	11.6x	13.6x
5.2%	$109	$129	$148	$168	$188
6.2%	$102	$120	$138	$156	$174
7.2%	$95	$111	$128	$144	$161
8.2%	$89	$104	$119	$134	$149
9.2%	$83	$97	$111	$124	$138

Current price: $112.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$108.14

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-3.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), The Marzetti Company (MZTI) has a fair value of $108.14 based on 7 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

P/E Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
The Marzetti CompanyMZTI	3,087	18.5x	17.9x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,208	18.1x	16.9x
BellRing Brands, Inc.BRBR	1,789	9.0x	7.9x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,563	24.5x	15.9x
Seneca Foods CorporationSENEA	1,131	27.9x	67.1x
The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL	1,005	10.9x	6.5x
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.JBSS	944	16.0x	16.9x
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.NATR	468	25.2x	40.5x
Industry Median		18.1x	16.9x
(*) Profit after tax		167	173
Equity Value		3,033	2,912
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$110	$106

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$108.14

-3.7%

Fair Value

$104.98

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-6.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), The Marzetti Company (MZTI) has a fair value of $104.98 based on 7 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
The Marzetti CompanyMZTI	3,087	10.4x	10.5x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,208	9.6x	9.9x
BellRing Brands, Inc.BRBR	1,789	7.5x	7.2x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,563	10.1x	10.1x
Seneca Foods CorporationSENEA	1,131	11.0x	4.8x
The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL	1,005	6.6x	7.0x
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.JBSS	944	9.3x	11.0x
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.NATR	468	10.2x	11.0x
Industry Median		9.6x	9.9x
(*) EBITDA		288	283
= Enterprise Value		2,754	2,806
(-) Net Debt		-106	-106
Equity Value		2,860	2,912
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$104	$106

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$104.98

-6.5%

Fair Value

$68.72

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-38.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The Marzetti Company (MZTI) has a fair value of $68.72 based on 9 comparable companies in the Packaged Foods industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Packaged Foods

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
The Marzetti CompanyMZTI	3,087	1.6x	1.6x
Post Holdings, Inc.POST	5,208	1.6x	1.6x
BellRing Brands, Inc.BRBR	1,789	1.2x	1.2x
J&J Snack Foods Corp.JJSF	1,563	1.0x	1.0x
Seneca Foods CorporationSENEA	1,131	0.9x	0.4x
The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL	1,005	0.8x	0.9x
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.JBSS	944	0.9x	1.1x
Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc.NATR	468	0.8x	0.9x
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.HAIN	82	0.5x	0.6x
Bridgford Foods CorporationBRID	68	0.3x	—
Industry Median		0.9x	1.0x
(*) Revenue		1,909	1,878
= Enterprise Value		1,769	1,797
(-) Net Debt		-106	-106
Equity Value		1,875	1,903
(/) Outstanding shares		27	27
Fair Price		$68	$69

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$68.72

-38.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$89.45

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-20.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

PEG Ratio

1.60Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 20.4 ÷ (10.1% + 2.6%) = 1.60

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	10.1%
Dividend Yield	+2.6%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	12.8%
Fair P/E	12.8x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$7.01
Fair Value	$89.45

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$6.07	—	—
FY2026E	$7.01	+15.5%	4
FY2027E	$7.36	+5.0%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$142.3M	$5.16	—
FY2022	$89.6M	$3.25	-37.0%
FY2023	$111.3M	$4.04	+24.3%
FY2024	$158.6M	$5.76	+42.6%
FY2025	$167.3M	$6.07	+5.4%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 4.1%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$66.27

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-41.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	123	123	123
(/) WACC	8.7%	7.2%	5.7%
Enterprise Value	1,420	1,716	2,168
(-) Net debt	-106	-106	-106
Equity Value	1,526	1,822	2,274
(/) Outstanding shares	27	27	27
Fair Price	$55.50	$66.27	$82.72

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$93.21

Market Price

$112.29

Upside / Downside

-17.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$3.77

Dividend Yield

2.63%

Payout Ratio

61.8%

Dividend Coverage

1.62x

FCF Payout Ratio50.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)6.3%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$3.77	61.8%	+5.6%
2024	$3.57	61.7%	+6.1%
2023	$3.36	83.0%	+6.4%
2022	$3.16	96.8%	+7.0%
2021	$2.95	57.1%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$3.97	5.5%	0.9326	$3.71
2027	$4.19	5.5%	0.8697	$3.65
2028	$4.42	5.5%	0.8110	$3.59
2029	$4.67	5.5%	0.7563	$3.53
2030	$4.92	5.5%	0.7053	$3.47
Terminal Value	$5.05 DPS	2.5%		$75.27

PV of Projected Dividends$17.94

PV of Terminal Value$75.27

Fair Value per Share$93.21

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	3.5%	4.5%	5.5%	6.5%	7.5%
5.2%	$148	$155	$162	$170	$177
6.2%	$108	$113	$118	$124	$129
7.2%	$85	$89	$93	$97	$102
8.2%	$70	$74	$77	$80	$84
9.2%	$60	$63	$65	$68	$71