MaxLinear, Inc.

MXL

TechnologySemiconductorsNASDAQ

$102.27

Market Cap: $9.16B

MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.32 – $11.23	$1.17	-93.6%
Revenue DCF 10Y	—	N/A	—
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$7.57 – $19.73	$9.77	-47.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.17

Market Price

$102.27

Upside / Downside

-98.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -27.1% to a target of 10.0% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) has an intrinsic value of $1.17 per share (range: $0.32 – $11.23).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

14.1%

D&A/Revenue

9.4%

Tax Rate

20.3%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	565	20.9%	-19.7%	-111	-111	53	(32)	72	-162	-155
2027	626	10.7%	-12.3%	-77	-77	59	(49)	17	-84	-74
2028	681	8.8%	-4.9%	-33	-33	64	(67)	15	-52	-42
2029	613	-10.0%	2.5%	16	12	58	(74)	-19	16	12
2030	551	-10.0%	10.0%	55	44	52	(78)	-17	35	24

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-235

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)615

PV of Terminal Value420

Enterprise Value185

(–) Net Debt83

Equity Value102

(÷) Shares Outstanding87

Fair Value per Share$1.17

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$-3	$1	$4	$8	$11
7.9%	$-3	$-0	$2	$5	$8
8.9%	$-3	$-1	$1	$3	$6
9.9%	$-4	$-2	$0	$2	$4
10.9%	$-4	$-2	$-0	$1	$3

Current price: $102.27. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 28.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.77

Market Price

$102.27

Upside / Downside

-90.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) has a fair value of $9.77 based on 10 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
MaxLinear, Inc.MXL	8,855	19.1x	24.9x
Fastly, Inc.FSLY	4,788	8.1x	8.2x
nLIGHT, Inc.LASR	3,247	12.2x	11.2x
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.UCTT	2,880	1.6x	1.6x
Photronics, Inc.PLAB	2,388	2.2x	2.1x
Himax Technologies, Inc.HIMX	1,543	1.6x	1.4x
Cohu, Inc.COHU	1,523	3.7x	4.1x
Amplitude, Inc.AMPL	912	2.4x	2.1x
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	690	0.8x	0.9x
indie Semiconductor, Inc.INDI	609	3.8x	3.8x
Alight, Inc.ALIT	288	0.9x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		468	358
= Enterprise Value		1,094	765
(-) Net Debt		83	83
Equity Value		1,011	682
(/) Outstanding shares		87	87
Fair Price		$12	$8

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.77

-90.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.32 – $11.23

$1.17

-93.6%

Revenue DCF 10Y

—

N/A

—

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$7.57 – $19.73

$9.77

-47.0%

DCF Analysis

MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$1.17

Market Price

$102.27

Upside / Downside

-98.9%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-27.1%

Target Operating Margin

10.0%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

14.1%

D&A/Revenue

9.4%

Tax Rate

20.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	565	20.9%	-19.7%	-111	-111	53	(32)	72	-162	-155
2027	626	10.7%	-12.3%	-77	-77	59	(49)	17	-84	-74
2028	681	8.8%	-4.9%	-33	-33	64	(67)	15	-52	-42
2029	613	-10.0%	2.5%	16	12	58	(74)	-19	16	12
2030	551	-10.0%	10.0%	55	44	52	(78)	-17	35	24

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-235

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)615

PV of Terminal Value420

Enterprise Value185

(–) Net Debt83

Equity Value102

(÷) Shares Outstanding87

Fair Value per Share$1.17

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.0%	7.0%	10.0%	13.0%	16.0%
6.9%	$-3	$1	$4	$8	$11
7.9%	$-3	$-0	$2	$5	$8
8.9%	$-3	$-1	$1	$3	$6
9.9%	$-4	$-2	$0	$2	$4
10.9%	$-4	$-2	$-0	$1	$3

Current price: $102.27. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 28.0% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$9.77

Market Price

$102.27

Upside / Downside

-90.4%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL) has a fair value of $9.77 based on 10 comparable companies in the Semiconductors industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Semiconductors

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
MaxLinear, Inc.MXL	8,855	19.1x	24.9x
Fastly, Inc.FSLY	4,788	8.1x	8.2x
nLIGHT, Inc.LASR	3,247	12.2x	11.2x
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc.UCTT	2,880	1.6x	1.6x
Photronics, Inc.PLAB	2,388	2.2x	2.1x
Himax Technologies, Inc.HIMX	1,543	1.6x	1.4x
Cohu, Inc.COHU	1,523	3.7x	4.1x
Amplitude, Inc.AMPL	912	2.4x	2.1x
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor LimitedAOSL	690	0.8x	0.9x
indie Semiconductor, Inc.INDI	609	3.8x	3.8x
Alight, Inc.ALIT	288	0.9x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.3x	2.1x
(*) Revenue		468	358
= Enterprise Value		1,094	765
(-) Net Debt		83	83
Equity Value		1,011	682
(/) Outstanding shares		87	87
Fair Price		$12	$8

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$9.77

-90.4%