Matrix Service Company

MTRX

IndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionNASDAQ

$12.31

Market Cap: $346.33M

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.74 – $86.95	$25.18	+115.9%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$4.78 – $91.19	$28.66	+145.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$33.85 – $69.81	$53.31	+357.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$28.66

Market Price

$12.31

Upside / Downside

+132.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.6% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Matrix Service Company (MTRX) has an intrinsic value of $28.66 per share (range: $4.78 – $91.19).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	896	16.5%	-1.6%	-14	-14	17	(12)	39	-48	-46
2027	980	9.3%	1.4%	14	11	18	(18)	14	-3	-3
2028	974	-0.6%	4.3%	42	33	18	(23)	-1	29	24
2029	1,004	3.0%	7.3%	73	58	19	(29)	5	43	32
2030	1,034	3.0%	10.3%	106	84	19	(35)	5	63	44
2031	1,068	3.3%	10.3%	110	87	20	(42)	6	59	38
2032	1,103	3.3%	10.3%	113	90	21	(49)	6	55	33
2033	1,138	3.2%	10.3%	117	92	21	(57)	6	51	28
2034	1,174	3.1%	10.3%	121	95	22	(64)	6	47	24
2035	1,210	3.1%	10.3%	124	98	23	(73)	6	42	20

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)195

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)839

PV of Terminal Value397

Enterprise Value593

(–) Net Debt-203

Equity Value796

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$28.66

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.2%	$5	$19	$43	$67	$91
7.2%	$5	$16	$34	$52	$70
8.2%	$5	$14	$29	$43	$57
9.2%	$5	$13	$25	$37	$49
10.2%	$5	$12	$22	$32	$42

Current price: $12.31. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$25.18

Market Price

$12.31

Upside / Downside

+104.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	896	16.5%	-1.6%	-14	-14	17	(17)	39	-53	-51
2027	980	9.3%	1.4%	14	11	18	(28)	14	-13	-12
2028	974	-0.6%	4.3%	42	33	18	(38)	-1	14	12
2029	1,004	3.0%	7.3%	73	58	19	(50)	5	22	17
2030	1,034	3.0%	10.3%	106	84	19	(62)	5	36	25

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-9

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)719

PV of Terminal Value505

Enterprise Value496

(–) Net Debt-203

Equity Value699

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$25.18

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.2%	$3	$15	$39	$63	$87
7.2%	$3	$13	$31	$48	$66
8.2%	$3	$11	$25	$39	$54
9.2%	$3	$10	$22	$33	$45
10.2%	$3	$9	$19	$29	$39

Current price: $12.31. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$52.81

Market Price

$12.31

Upside / Downside

+329.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Matrix Service Company (MTRX) has a fair value of $52.81 based on 9 comparable companies in the Engineering & Construction industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Engineering & Construction

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Matrix Service CompanyMTRX	342	0.2x	0.2x
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.BW	1,766	3.5x	2.4x
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.ULH	548	1.0x	0.8x
Euroseas Ltd.ESEA	474	2.3x	2.5x
Cryoport, Inc.CYRX	462	2.5x	2.3x
Orion Group Holdings, Inc.ORN	445	0.6x	0.7x
Titan Machinery Inc.TITN	409	0.5x	0.6x
Strata Critical Medical, Inc.SRTA	365	1.7x	1.4x
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. Common StockAIRO	274	2.2x	2.0x
ZipRecruiter, Inc.ZIP	189	1.3x	1.2x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		769	876
= Enterprise Value		1,318	1,209
(-) Net Debt		-203	-203
Equity Value		1,521	1,412
(/) Outstanding shares		28	28
Fair Price		$55	$51

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.81

+329.0%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$2.74 – $86.95

$25.18

+115.9%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$4.78 – $91.19

$28.66

+145.8%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$33.85 – $69.81

$53.31

+357.2%

DCF Analysis

Matrix Service Company (MTRX) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$28.66

Market Price

$12.31

Upside / Downside

+132.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.8%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	896	16.5%	-1.6%	-14	-14	17	(12)	39	-48	-46
2027	980	9.3%	1.4%	14	11	18	(18)	14	-3	-3
2028	974	-0.6%	4.3%	42	33	18	(23)	-1	29	24
2029	1,004	3.0%	7.3%	73	58	19	(29)	5	43	32
2030	1,034	3.0%	10.3%	106	84	19	(35)	5	63	44
2031	1,068	3.3%	10.3%	110	87	20	(42)	6	59	38
2032	1,103	3.3%	10.3%	113	90	21	(49)	6	55	33
2033	1,138	3.2%	10.3%	117	92	21	(57)	6	51	28
2034	1,174	3.1%	10.3%	121	95	22	(64)	6	47	24
2035	1,210	3.1%	10.3%	124	98	23	(73)	6	42	20

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)195

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)839

PV of Terminal Value397

Enterprise Value593

(–) Net Debt-203

Equity Value796

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$28.66

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.2%	$5	$19	$43	$67	$91
7.2%	$5	$16	$34	$52	$70
8.2%	$5	$14	$29	$43	$57
9.2%	$5	$13	$25	$37	$49
10.2%	$5	$12	$22	$32	$42

Current price: $12.31. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 16.6% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$52.81

Market Price

$12.31

Upside / Downside

+329.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Engineering & Construction

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Matrix Service CompanyMTRX	342	0.2x	0.2x
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc.BW	1,766	3.5x	2.4x
Universal Logistics Holdings, Inc.ULH	548	1.0x	0.8x
Euroseas Ltd.ESEA	474	2.3x	2.5x
Cryoport, Inc.CYRX	462	2.5x	2.3x
Orion Group Holdings, Inc.ORN	445	0.6x	0.7x
Titan Machinery Inc.TITN	409	0.5x	0.6x
Strata Critical Medical, Inc.SRTA	365	1.7x	1.4x
AIRO Group Holdings, Inc. Common StockAIRO	274	2.2x	2.0x
ZipRecruiter, Inc.ZIP	189	1.3x	1.2x
Industry Median		1.7x	1.4x
(*) Revenue		769	876
= Enterprise Value		1,318	1,209
(-) Net Debt		-203	-203
Equity Value		1,521	1,412
(/) Outstanding shares		28	28
Fair Price		$55	$51

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$52.81

+329.0%