MSCI Inc.

MSCI

Financial ServicesFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesNYSE

$584.63

Market Cap: $42.56B

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 22, 2026 22:17

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$328.47 – $6,003.28	$658.05	+8.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$408.41 – $6,966.57	$792.41	+30.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$199.50 – $485.21	$330.34	-45.7%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$282.90 – $665.14	$445.75	-26.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$217.81 – $444.06	$287.64	-52.7%
EV/EBITDA	$119.81 – $392.15	$268.15	-55.9%
EV/Revenue	-$1.19 – $163.99	$148.66	-75.5%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$312.81 – $312.81	$312.81	-48.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$163.23 – $295.73	$215.06	-64.6%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$185.24 – $623.11	$305.97	-49.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$658.05

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

+12.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MSCI Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.6% to 7.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 113, DPO 11, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $658.05 per share, suggesting MSCI is fairly valued by 12.6% at the current price of $584.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,535
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	349
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	85
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	2,969

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	435
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	115
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	116
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	2,303

Terminal Value						67,870
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	48,633

Enterprise Value	56,655
Projection Period	8,022	14.2%
Terminal Value	48,633	85.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794

Equity Value	50,861
(/) Outstanding Shares	77

Fair Price	$658.05

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
4.9%	$1014	$1273	$1718	$2661	$6003
5.9%	$691	$805	$966	$1213	$1638
6.9%	$515	$577	$658	$767	$921
7.9%	$404	$443	$490	$550	$627
8.9%	$328	$354	$385	$422	$467

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$792.41

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

+35.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MSCI Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.6% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 113, DPO 11, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $792.41 per share, suggesting MSCI is undervalued by 35.5% at the current price of $584.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,692	2,922	3,131	3,311	3,456	3,577
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	371	402	431	456	476	492
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	96	104	113	122	131	136
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	3,159	3,428	3,675	3,889	4,063	4,205

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	462	502	538	569	593	614
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	122	132	142	150	157	162
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	155	146	133	115	92	96
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	2,420	2,648	2,862	3,055	3,221	3,333

Terminal Value											98,243
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	1,678	1,717	1,736	1,734	1,710	50,443

Enterprise Value	67,040
Projection Period	16,596	24.8%
Terminal Value	50,443	75.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794

Equity Value	61,245
(/) Outstanding Shares	77

Fair Price	$792.41

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
4.9%	$1280	$1575	$2082	$3157	$6967
5.9%	$867	$991	$1167	$1435	$1897
6.9%	$644	$709	$792	$905	$1065
7.9%	$504	$542	$589	$648	$724
8.9%	$408	$433	$462	$497	$539

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$330.36

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-43.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MSCI Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.6% to 7.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 113, DPO 11, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $330.34 per share, suggesting MSCI is overvalued by 43.5% at the current price of $584.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.06x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,511
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	346
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	84
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	2,941

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	—
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	—
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.1x
Terminal Value						32,524
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	23,306

Enterprise Value	31,328
Projection Period	8,022	25.6%
Terminal Value	23,306	74.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794
Equity Value	25,533
(÷) Outstanding Shares	77M
Fair Price	$330	-43.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.1x	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x
4.9%	$245	$305	$365	$425	$485
5.9%	$233	$290	$347	$405	$462
6.9%	$221	$276	$330	$385	$439
7.9%	$210	$262	$314	$366	$418
8.9%	$200	$249	$299	$349	$398

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$445.76

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-23.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MSCI Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.6% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 113, DPO 11, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (59% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $445.75 per share, suggesting MSCI is overvalued by 23.8% at the current price of $584.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.06x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,692	2,922	3,131	3,311	3,456	3,542
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	371	402	431	456	476	488
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	96	104	113	122	131	135
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	3,159	3,428	3,675	3,889	4,063	4,165

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	462	502	538	569	593	—
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	122	132	142	150	157	—
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	155	146	133	115	92	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	2,420	2,648	2,862	3,055	3,221	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.1x
Terminal Value											46,063
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	1,678	1,717	1,736	1,734	1,710	23,651

Enterprise Value	40,248
Projection Period	16,596	41.2%
Terminal Value	23,651	58.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794
Equity Value	34,453
(÷) Outstanding Shares	77M
Fair Price	$446	-23.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.1x	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x
4.9%	$398	$465	$531	$598	$665
5.9%	$365	$426	$487	$547	$608
6.9%	$335	$390	$446	$501	$556
7.9%	$308	$358	$409	$459	$509
8.9%	$283	$329	$375	$421	$467

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$288.33

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-50.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), MSCI Inc. (MSCI) has a fair value of $288.33 based on 8 comparable companies in the Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges industry.

P/E Valuation — Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
MSCI Inc.MSCI	45,186	37.6x	29.8x
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM	844,225	15.6x	16.8x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	5.6x	12.7x
MetLife, Inc.MET	50,715	16.0x	8.9x
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ	49,317	28.0x	22.1x
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP	43,527	12.9x	12.1x
American International Group, Inc.AIG	40,795	14.0x	15.1x
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.CBOE	31,156	28.5x	24.2x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	24,306	48.9x	52.1x
Industry Median		15.8x	16.0x
(*) Profit after tax		1,202	1,517
Equity Value		19,025	25,546
(/) Outstanding shares		77	77
Fair Price		$246	$331

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$288.33

-50.7%

Fair Value

$268.99

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-54.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), MSCI Inc. (MSCI) has a fair value of $268.99 based on 9 comparable companies in the Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
MSCI Inc.MSCI	45,186	26.4x	23.8x
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM	844,225	17.7x	28.2x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	4.4x	5.4x
MetLife, Inc.MET	50,715	8.5x	7.9x
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ	49,317	18.7x	26.9x
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP	43,527	7.8x	8.1x
Rocket Companies, Inc.RKT	43,236	45.6x	69.0x
American International Group, Inc.AIG	40,795	6.3x	6.1x
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.CBOE	31,156	18.7x	32.9x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	24,306	11.1x	14.8x
Industry Median		11.1x	14.8x
(*) EBITDA		1,932	2,145
= Enterprise Value		21,368	31,801
(-) Net Debt		5,794	5,794
Equity Value		15,574	26,006
(/) Outstanding shares		77	77
Fair Price		$201	$336

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$268.99

-54.0%

Fair Value

$149.21

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-74.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), MSCI Inc. (MSCI) has a fair value of $149.21 based on 9 comparable companies in the Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
MSCI Inc.MSCI	45,186	16.3x	14.7x
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM	844,225	5.2x	8.2x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	0.9x	1.1x
MetLife, Inc.MET	50,715	0.6x	0.6x
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ	49,317	7.1x	10.2x
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP	43,527	2.1x	2.2x
Rocket Companies, Inc.RKT	43,236	5.9x	8.9x
American International Group, Inc.AIG	40,795	1.8x	1.8x
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.CBOE	31,156	6.5x	11.4x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	24,306	4.4x	6.0x
Industry Median		4.4x	6.0x
(*) Revenue		3,134	3,480
= Enterprise Value		13,927	20,727
(-) Net Debt		5,794	5,794
Equity Value		8,133	14,932
(/) Outstanding shares		77	77
Fair Price		$105	$193

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$149.21

-74.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$312.81

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-46.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 16.0% plus 1.3% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $312.81 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $19.54. The current PEG ratio is 1.94.

PEG Ratio

1.94Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 31.1 ÷ (14.8% + 1.3%) = 1.94

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	14.8%
Dividend Yield	+1.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	16.0%
Fair P/E	16.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$19.54
Fair Value	$312.81

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$15.56	—	—
FY2026E	$19.54	+25.6%	12
FY2027E	$22.24	+13.8%	12
FY2028E	$25.19	+13.3%	11
FY2029E	$27.70	+10.0%	5
FY2030E	$30.96	+11.8%	5

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.8%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$726.0M	$8.70	—
FY2022	$870.6M	$10.72	+23.2%
FY2023	$1.1B	$14.39	+34.2%
FY2024	$1.1B	$14.05	-2.4%
FY2025	$1.2B	$15.56	+10.7%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 15.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$215.06

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-63.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.9% and normalized earnings of $1.5B, the company has a fair value of $215.06 per share. The EPV range is $163.23 – $295.73 based on WACC sensitivity (5.4% – 8.4%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,545	1,545	1,545
(/) WACC	8.4%	6.9%	5.4%
Enterprise Value	18,411	22,417	28,652
(-) Net debt	5,794	5,794	5,794
Equity Value	12,616	16,622	22,857
(/) Outstanding shares	77	77	77
Fair Price	$163.23	$215.06	$295.73

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$305.97

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-47.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.5% and projected dividend growth of 15.0%, the fair value is $305.97 per share. The DDM range is $185.24 – $623.11 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$7.20

Dividend Yield

1.25%

Payout Ratio

46.3%

Dividend Coverage

2.16x

FCF Payout Ratio35.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)18.7%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$7.20	46.3%	+11.7%
2024	$6.45	45.9%	+16.7%
2023	$5.52	38.4%	+20.3%
2022	$4.59	42.8%	+26.7%
2021	$3.62	41.7%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$8.28	15.0%	0.9303	$7.70
2027	$9.52	15.0%	0.8655	$8.24
2028	$10.95	15.0%	0.8052	$8.82
2029	$12.59	15.0%	0.7490	$9.43
2030	$14.48	15.0%	0.6968	$10.09
Terminal Value	$14.99 DPS	3.5%		$261.68

PV of Projected Dividends$44.29

PV of Terminal Value$261.68

Fair Value per Share$305.97

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.5%	$572	$597	$623	$623	$623
6.5%	$378	$395	$411	$411	$411
7.5%	$282	$294	$306	$306	$306
8.5%	$224	$233	$243	$243	$243
9.5%	$185	$193	$201	$201	$201

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 22, 2026 22:17

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$328.47 – $6,003.28	$658.05	+8.2%
Growth Exit 10Y	$408.41 – $6,966.57	$792.41	+30.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$199.50 – $485.21	$330.34	-45.7%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$282.90 – $665.14	$445.75	-26.7%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$217.81 – $444.06	$287.64	-52.7%
EV/EBITDA	$119.81 – $392.15	$268.15	-55.9%
EV/Revenue	-$1.19 – $163.99	$148.66	-75.5%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$312.81 – $312.81	$312.81	-48.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$163.23 – $295.73	$215.06	-64.6%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$185.24 – $623.11	$305.97	-49.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$658.05

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

+12.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,535
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	349
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	85
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	2,969

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	435
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	115
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	116
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	2,303

Terminal Value						67,870
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	48,633

Enterprise Value	56,655
Projection Period	8,022	14.2%
Terminal Value	48,633	85.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794

Equity Value	50,861
(/) Outstanding Shares	77

Fair Price	$658.05

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
4.9%	$1014	$1273	$1718	$2661	$6003
5.9%	$691	$805	$966	$1213	$1638
6.9%	$515	$577	$658	$767	$921
7.9%	$404	$443	$490	$550	$627
8.9%	$328	$354	$385	$422	$467

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$792.41

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

+35.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

3.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,692	2,922	3,131	3,311	3,456	3,577
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	371	402	431	456	476	492
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	96	104	113	122	131	136
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	3,159	3,428	3,675	3,889	4,063	4,205

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	462	502	538	569	593	614
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	122	132	142	150	157	162
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	155	146	133	115	92	96
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	2,420	2,648	2,862	3,055	3,221	3,333

Terminal Value											98,243
WACC / Discount Rate	6.9%
Long-term Growth Rate	3.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	1,678	1,717	1,736	1,734	1,710	50,443

Enterprise Value	67,040
Projection Period	16,596	24.8%
Terminal Value	50,443	75.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794

Equity Value	61,245
(/) Outstanding Shares	77

Fair Price	$792.41

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
4.9%	$1280	$1575	$2082	$3157	$6967
5.9%	$867	$991	$1167	$1435	$1897
6.9%	$644	$709	$792	$905	$1065
7.9%	$504	$542	$589	$648	$724
8.9%	$408	$433	$462	$497	$539

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$330.36

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-43.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MSCI Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.6% to 7.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 113, DPO 11, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (74% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $330.34 per share, suggesting MSCI is overvalued by 43.5% at the current price of $584.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.06x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,511
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	346
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	84
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	2,941

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	—
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	—
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						11.1x
Terminal Value						32,524
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	23,306

Enterprise Value	31,328
Projection Period	8,022	25.6%
Terminal Value	23,306	74.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794
Equity Value	25,533
(÷) Outstanding Shares	77M
Fair Price	$330	-43.5%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.1x	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x
4.9%	$245	$305	$365	$425	$485
5.9%	$233	$290	$347	$405	$462
6.9%	$221	$276	$330	$385	$439
7.9%	$210	$262	$314	$366	$418
8.9%	$200	$249	$299	$349	$398

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$445.76

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-23.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MSCI Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 10.6% to 4.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 113, DPO 11, DIO 60). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (59% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $445.75 per share, suggesting MSCI is overvalued by 23.8% at the current price of $584.63.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.89%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

11.06x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,813	1,970	2,135	2,273	2,450	2,692	2,922	3,131	3,311	3,456	3,542
(−) Net Interest	250	271	294	313	337	371	402	431	456	476	488
(+) D&A	58	64	67	68	82	96	104	113	122	131	135
EBITDA	2,121	2,305	2,496	2,655	2,869	3,159	3,428	3,675	3,889	4,063	4,165

(−) Tax	311	338	367	390	421	462	502	538	569	593	—
(−) CapEx	82	89	97	103	111	122	132	142	150	157	—
(−) ΔWC	184	100	106	88	112	155	146	133	115	92	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	1,543	1,777	1,927	2,073	2,225	2,420	2,648	2,862	3,055	3,221	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											11.1x
Terminal Value											46,063
WACC / Discount Rate	6.89%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	1,492	1,608	1,631	1,642	1,648	1,678	1,717	1,736	1,734	1,710	23,651

Enterprise Value	40,248
Projection Period	16,596	41.2%
Terminal Value	23,651	58.8%

(−) Current Net Debt	5,794
Equity Value	34,453
(÷) Outstanding Shares	77M
Fair Price	$446	-23.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	7.1x	9.1x	11.1x	13.1x	15.1x
4.9%	$398	$465	$531	$598	$665
5.9%	$365	$426	$487	$547	$608
6.9%	$335	$390	$446	$501	$556
7.9%	$308	$358	$409	$459	$509
8.9%	$283	$329	$375	$421	$467

Current price: $584.63. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$288.33

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-50.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
MSCI Inc.MSCI	45,186	37.6x	29.8x
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM	844,225	15.6x	16.8x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	5.6x	12.7x
MetLife, Inc.MET	50,715	16.0x	8.9x
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ	49,317	28.0x	22.1x
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP	43,527	12.9x	12.1x
American International Group, Inc.AIG	40,795	14.0x	15.1x
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.CBOE	31,156	28.5x	24.2x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	24,306	48.9x	52.1x
Industry Median		15.8x	16.0x
(*) Profit after tax		1,202	1,517
Equity Value		19,025	25,546
(/) Outstanding shares		77	77
Fair Price		$246	$331

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$288.33

-50.7%

Fair Value

$268.99

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-54.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
MSCI Inc.MSCI	45,186	26.4x	23.8x
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM	844,225	17.7x	28.2x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	4.4x	5.4x
MetLife, Inc.MET	50,715	8.5x	7.9x
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ	49,317	18.7x	26.9x
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP	43,527	7.8x	8.1x
Rocket Companies, Inc.RKT	43,236	45.6x	69.0x
American International Group, Inc.AIG	40,795	6.3x	6.1x
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.CBOE	31,156	18.7x	32.9x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	24,306	11.1x	14.8x
Industry Median		11.1x	14.8x
(*) EBITDA		1,932	2,145
= Enterprise Value		21,368	31,801
(-) Net Debt		5,794	5,794
Equity Value		15,574	26,006
(/) Outstanding shares		77	77
Fair Price		$201	$336

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$268.99

-54.0%

Fair Value

$149.21

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-74.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
MSCI Inc.MSCI	45,186	16.3x	14.7x
JPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM	844,225	5.2x	8.2x
The Allstate CorporationALL	55,582	0.9x	1.1x
MetLife, Inc.MET	50,715	0.6x	0.6x
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ	49,317	7.1x	10.2x
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.AMP	43,527	2.1x	2.2x
Rocket Companies, Inc.RKT	43,236	5.9x	8.9x
American International Group, Inc.AIG	40,795	1.8x	1.8x
Cboe Global Markets, Inc.CBOE	31,156	6.5x	11.4x
SoFi Technologies, Inc.SOFI	24,306	4.4x	6.0x
Industry Median		4.4x	6.0x
(*) Revenue		3,134	3,480
= Enterprise Value		13,927	20,727
(-) Net Debt		5,794	5,794
Equity Value		8,133	14,932
(/) Outstanding shares		77	77
Fair Price		$105	$193

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$149.21

-74.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$312.81

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-46.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

PEG Ratio

1.94Pricey

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 31.1 ÷ (14.8% + 1.3%) = 1.94

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	14.8%
Dividend Yield	+1.3%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	16.0%
Fair P/E	16.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$19.54
Fair Value	$312.81

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$15.56	—	—
FY2026E	$19.54	+25.6%	12
FY2027E	$22.24	+13.8%	12
FY2028E	$25.19	+13.3%	11
FY2029E	$27.70	+10.0%	5
FY2030E	$30.96	+11.8%	5

5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.8%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$726.0M	$8.70	—
FY2022	$870.6M	$10.72	+23.2%
FY2023	$1.1B	$14.39	+34.2%
FY2024	$1.1B	$14.05	-2.4%
FY2025	$1.2B	$15.56	+10.7%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 15.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$215.06

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-63.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,545	1,545	1,545
(/) WACC	8.4%	6.9%	5.4%
Enterprise Value	18,411	22,417	28,652
(-) Net debt	5,794	5,794	5,794
Equity Value	12,616	16,622	22,857
(/) Outstanding shares	77	77	77
Fair Price	$163.23	$215.06	$295.73

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$305.97

Market Price

$584.63

Upside / Downside

-47.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$7.20

Dividend Yield

1.25%

Payout Ratio

46.3%

Dividend Coverage

2.16x

FCF Payout Ratio35.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)18.7%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$7.20	46.3%	+11.7%
2024	$6.45	45.9%	+16.7%
2023	$5.52	38.4%	+20.3%
2022	$4.59	42.8%	+26.7%
2021	$3.62	41.7%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$8.28	15.0%	0.9303	$7.70
2027	$9.52	15.0%	0.8655	$8.24
2028	$10.95	15.0%	0.8052	$8.82
2029	$12.59	15.0%	0.7490	$9.43
2030	$14.48	15.0%	0.6968	$10.09
Terminal Value	$14.99 DPS	3.5%		$261.68

PV of Projected Dividends$44.29

PV of Terminal Value$261.68

Fair Value per Share$305.97

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	13.0%	14.0%	15.0%	15.0%	15.0%
5.5%	$572	$597	$623	$623	$623
6.5%	$378	$395	$411	$411	$411
7.5%	$282	$294	$306	$306	$306
8.5%	$224	$233	$243	$243	$243
9.5%	$185	$193	$201	$201	$201