Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 18.5% plus 1.6% dividend yield, Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a fair value of $298.69 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $16.16. The current PEG ratio is 0.83.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 16.9% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 18.5% |
| Fair P/E | 18.5x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $16.16 |
| Fair Value | $298.69 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $13.27 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $16.16 | +21.8% | 7 |
| FY2027E | $14.84 | -8.2% | 6 |
| FY2028E | $15.13 | +1.9% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $28.80 | +90.4% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $29.00 | +0.7% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 16.9%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $9.7B | $2.69 | — |
| FY2022 | $14.5B | $28.12 | +945.3% |
| FY2023 | $9.7B | $23.65 | -15.9% |
| FY2024 | $3.4B | $10.09 | -57.3% |
| FY2025 | $4.0B | $13.27 | +31.5% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 49.0%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.