Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Mosaic Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.7% to -10.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 42, DPO 45, DIO 101). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $128.97 per share, suggesting MOS is undervalued by 416.5% at the current price of $24.97.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,899 | 1,871 | 1,873 | 1,940 | 1,745 | 1,788 |
| (−) Net Interest | 196 | 193 | 194 | 201 | 180 | 185 |
| (+) D&A | 1,310 | 1,305 | 1,306 | 1,275 | 1,283 | 1,315 |
| EBITDA | 3,405 | 3,370 | 3,372 | 3,415 | 3,208 | 3,289 |
| (−) Tax | 629 | 619 | 620 | 642 | 578 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,266 | 1,248 | 1,249 | 1,294 | 1,164 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 5 | -44 | 2 | 107 | -311 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,505 | 1,547 | 1,501 | 1,372 | 1,778 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 16.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 54,623 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,457 | 1,405 | 1,277 | 1,095 | 1,330 | 39,564 |
| Enterprise Value | 46,128 | |||||
| Projection Period | 6,564 | 14.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 39,564 | 85.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,003 | |||||
| Equity Value | 41,125 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 319M | |||||
| Fair Price | $129 | +416.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 12.6x | 14.6x | 16.6x | 18.6x | 20.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | $109 | $126 | $142 | $159 | $175 |
| 5.7% | $104 | $120 | $135 | $151 | $167 |
| 6.7% | $99 | $114 | $129 | $144 | $159 |
| 7.7% | $94 | $109 | $123 | $137 | $151 |
| 8.7% | $90 | $103 | $117 | $131 | $144 |
Current price: $24.97. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.