Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Monster Beverage Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 11.2% to 23.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 62, DPO 56, DIO 92). At a 6.9% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $68.86 per share, suggesting MNST is fairly valued by 4.8% at the current price of $72.34.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,108 | 3,376 | 3,666 | 3,610 | 4,446 | 4,557 |
| (−) Net Interest | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| (+) D&A | 189 | 226 | 238 | 249 | 245 | 251 |
| EBITDA | 3,305 | 3,611 | 3,914 | 3,868 | 4,702 | 4,820 |
| (−) Tax | 723 | 785 | 853 | 839 | 1,034 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 247 | 268 | 291 | 287 | 353 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 135 | 171 | 186 | -36 | 534 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,200 | 2,387 | 2,584 | 2,779 | 2,781 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 76,831 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.93% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,128 | 2,159 | 2,186 | 2,198 | 2,057 | 54,959 |
| Enterprise Value | 65,686 | |||||
| Projection Period | 10,728 | 16.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 54,959 | 83.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (2,088) | |||||
| Equity Value | 67,774 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 984M | |||||
| Fair Price | $69 | -4.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.9x | 13.9x | 15.9x | 17.9x | 19.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9% | $60 | $67 | $75 | $83 | $90 |
| 5.9% | $57 | $64 | $72 | $79 | $86 |
| 6.9% | $55 | $62 | $69 | $76 | $83 |
| 7.9% | $53 | $59 | $66 | $73 | $79 |
| 8.9% | $51 | $57 | $63 | $70 | $76 |
Current price: $72.34. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.