Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project MetLife, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.0% to 5.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 171, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (75% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $338.72 per share, suggesting MET is undervalued by 384.9% at the current price of $69.86.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 16,007 | 16,734 | 17,558 | 18,610 | 19,545 | 20,033 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,148 | 1,200 | 1,259 | 1,335 | 1,402 | 1,437 |
| (+) D&A | 0 | 794 | 1,623 | 2,494 | 3,416 | 3,502 |
| EBITDA | 17,155 | 18,728 | 20,440 | 22,439 | 24,363 | 24,972 |
| (−) Tax | 3,515 | 3,675 | 3,856 | 4,087 | 4,292 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 3,968 | 4,148 | 4,352 | 4,613 | 4,845 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -12,424 | 1,900 | 2,152 | 2,750 | 2,442 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 22,097 | 9,005 | 10,080 | 10,988 | 12,784 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 9.5x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 237,234 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.20% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 21,342 | 8,113 | 8,472 | 8,615 | 9,349 | 167,570 |
| Enterprise Value | 223,461 | |||||
| Projection Period | 55,891 | 25.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 167,570 | 75.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (1,849) | |||||
| Equity Value | 225,310 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 665M | |||||
| Fair Price | $339 | +385.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 5.5x | 7.5x | 9.5x | 11.5x | 13.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $250 | $309 | $367 | $425 | $484 |
| 6.2% | $241 | $297 | $352 | $408 | $464 |
| 7.2% | $233 | $286 | $339 | $392 | $445 |
| 8.2% | $224 | $275 | $326 | $376 | $427 |
| 9.2% | $217 | $265 | $313 | $362 | $410 |
Current price: $69.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.