Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Mondelez International, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.1% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 140, DIO 60). At a 5.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $83.79 per share, suggesting MDLZ is undervalued by 44.8% at the current price of $57.86.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 5,279 | 5,444 | 5,613 | 5,735 | 5,896 | 6,043 |
| (−) Net Interest | 499 | 515 | 531 | 542 | 557 | 571 |
| (+) D&A | 1,130 | 1,198 | 1,286 | 1,342 | 1,348 | 1,382 |
| EBITDA | 6,908 | 7,157 | 7,430 | 7,619 | 7,802 | 7,997 |
| (−) Tax | 1,241 | 1,280 | 1,319 | 1,348 | 1,386 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,307 | 1,347 | 1,389 | 1,419 | 1,459 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 195 | -21 | -21 | -15 | -20 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 4,165 | 4,550 | 4,743 | 4,867 | 4,977 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 18.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 143,780 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.73% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4,051 | 4,186 | 4,126 | 4,004 | 3,873 | 108,818 |
| Enterprise Value | 129,058 | |||||
| Projection Period | 20,240 | 15.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 108,818 | 84.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 20,278 | |||||
| Equity Value | 108,780 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1298M | |||||
| Fair Price | $84 | +44.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 14.0x | 16.0x | 18.0x | 20.0x | 22.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7% | $72 | $83 | $93 | $103 | $113 |
| 4.7% | $69 | $78 | $88 | $98 | $108 |
| 5.7% | $65 | $74 | $84 | $93 | $102 |
| 6.7% | $62 | $71 | $80 | $88 | $97 |
| 7.7% | $59 | $67 | $76 | $84 | $93 |
Current price: $57.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.