Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 9.1% to 20.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 37, DPO 65, DIO 1). At a 7.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $108.35 per share, suggesting LYV is overvalued by 28.2% at the current price of $151.00.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,277 | 1,396 | 1,526 | 1,713 | 2,059 | 2,111 |
| (−) Net Interest | 571 | 624 | 682 | 765 | 920 | 943 |
| (+) D&A | 545 | 666 | 762 | 849 | 919 | 942 |
| EBITDA | 2,393 | 2,686 | 2,970 | 3,328 | 3,899 | 3,996 |
| (−) Tax | 85 | 93 | 101 | 114 | 137 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 764 | 835 | 912 | 1,024 | 1,231 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -736 | -74 | -80 | -116 | -215 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,281 | 1,832 | 2,037 | 2,306 | 2,745 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 29,411 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.95% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,205 | 1,657 | 1,722 | 1,823 | 2,029 | 21,018 |
| Enterprise Value | 30,453 | |||||
| Projection Period | 9,436 | 31.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 21,018 | 69.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 5,334 | |||||
| Equity Value | 25,119 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 232M | |||||
| Fair Price | $108 | -28.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 3.4x | 5.4x | 7.4x | 9.4x | 11.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | $65 | $92 | $119 | $146 | $173 |
| 6.0% | $62 | $88 | $114 | $139 | $165 |
| 7.0% | $59 | $84 | $108 | $133 | $158 |
| 8.0% | $56 | $80 | $103 | $127 | $150 |
| 9.0% | $54 | $76 | $99 | $121 | $143 |
Current price: $151.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.