Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.7% to -10.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 37, DIO 46). At a 7.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (87% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $244.65 per share, suggesting LYB is undervalued by 215.7% at the current price of $77.49.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,392 | 2,400 | 2,407 | 2,167 | 1,950 | 1,999 |
| (−) Net Interest | 351 | 353 | 354 | 318 | 286 | 294 |
| (+) D&A | 1,819 | 1,704 | 1,603 | 1,574 | 1,457 | 1,493 |
| EBITDA | 4,562 | 4,457 | 4,364 | 4,059 | 3,693 | 3,786 |
| (−) Tax | 416 | 418 | 419 | 377 | 340 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,380 | 1,385 | 1,389 | 1,251 | 1,125 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -210 | 13 | 10 | -354 | -318 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,975 | 2,640 | 2,545 | 2,785 | 2,547 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 29.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 112,280 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.06% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,875 | 2,384 | 2,146 | 2,194 | 1,873 | 79,825 |
| Enterprise Value | 91,296 | |||||
| Projection Period | 11,472 | 12.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 79,825 | 87.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 12,513 | |||||
| Equity Value | 78,783 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 322M | |||||
| Fair Price | $245 | +215.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 25.7x | 27.7x | 29.7x | 31.7x | 33.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.1% | $234 | $252 | $271 | $289 | $307 |
| 6.1% | $222 | $240 | $257 | $275 | $292 |
| 7.1% | $211 | $228 | $245 | $261 | $278 |
| 8.1% | $201 | $217 | $233 | $249 | $265 |
| 9.1% | $191 | $206 | $221 | $237 | $252 |
Current price: $77.49. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.